Russia Votes as Putin Eyes Election as Mandate for War and New Elite

Russians are casting ballots in a three-day parliamentary election that is widely expected to preserve the dominance of the ruling United Russia party, in a political system where most candidates opposed to Moscow's war in Ukraine have been excluded.

Although the overall result is not in doubt, the vote offers President Vladimir Putin several political uses.

A mandate to continue the war

Putin has framed the election as a test of public support for the conflict, and is likely to cite the results as evidence that most Russians back his decision to keep fighting until key war aims are met. The war has run far longer than many expected, and its effects are increasingly visible at home. Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian territory have escalated, and while civilian casualties remain far lower than in Ukraine, they have risen sharply this year. Attacks on oil refineries have caused fuel shortages, and businesses are contending with strikes on warehouses. Polling suggests growing anxiety among some Russians.

Promoting a 'new elite'

Putin has described those who fought in Ukraine as "warriors" and as part of a new "elite" promised prestigious careers. Around 200 veterans are standing for a range of parties. If they perform well, Putin is expected to present their showing as proof that the state looks after those who risked their lives, and that battlefield distinction can lead to a prominent political career. Such an outcome could also encourage more people to enlist.

Contrast with Ukraine

Putin has repeatedly questioned the legitimacy of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, noting that his five-year term expired in May 2024 and that no new election has been held since. Martial law imposed in Ukraine in 2022 bars wartime elections, and the constitution provides that the president serves until a newly elected successor takes office. Facing Western criticism of Russia's own political system, Putin may use the vote to argue that Russia, unlike Ukraine, has kept to its electoral timetable despite the war and is giving people a chance to vote.

A sense of normalcy

Putin has sought to show Russians that life can largely continue as before despite the conflict. Deepening and more destructive Ukrainian drone strikes have made that harder in the war's fifth year. But holding a relatively smooth parliamentary election across 11 time zones, the world's largest country, while waging war in Ukraine, could help reassure Russians that pre-war traditions are being respected and that life goes on, up to a point.

Mobilisation and censorship fears

This month Putin dismissed suggestions by Ukraine and Western commentators that Russia would carry out a post-election mobilisation to expand its army as "nonsense," calling it a malicious claim meant to sow panic. Domestic and foreign critics of the war nonetheless fear he could use the result to justify such a move, citing what Western intelligence agencies describe as heavy Russian losses and a desire to accelerate territorial gains with more manpower.

Those critics also worry that authorities may pursue more repressive measures once the results are in and a pre-election feel-good mood is no longer needed. They point to previously floated plans to have mobile operators charge customers extra for using more than 15 gigabytes of foreign data in a month, a move seen as targeting users of VPNs to reach banned websites and apps. Authorities have given no public indication they intend to revive the plan soon.