New Russia Sanctions Law Hands Trump Broad Tariff Powers

The Russia sanctions bill passed by Congress this week grants US President Donald Trump sweeping new authority to impose tariffs that could outlast his presidency, adding fresh uncertainty to a global economy already unsettled by nearly two years of trade conflicts.

Analysts suggest the immediate effect may be muted, as Trump is unlikely to take steps that could drive consumer prices higher before the November midterm elections, when control of Congress is at stake. Yet critics argue the legislation's broad language could spell trouble for other nations that find themselves in the president's crosshairs down the line.

The bill mandates that within 30 days Trump impose tariffs of up to 100% on all goods from the five largest importers of Russian crude oil or gas, as well as any country that knowingly makes new oil or gas purchases 30 days after enactment or ranks among the top five facilitators of Russian sanctions evasion. China and India are among the biggest buyers of Russian oil, but the law does not name specific countries or detail how the top-five lists would be determined, giving US officials considerable latitude.

"Given the discretionary authority that the president has, it is likely to be abused," said Laura Brank, a lawyer at Bryan Cave Leighton Paisner who focuses on cross-border transactions.

Since returning to office in January 2025, Trump has imposed tariffs of up to 50% on more than 80 countries, though the Supreme Court has struck down many of them, ruling he exceeded his authority. Challenging the new tariffs in court could prove difficult because the law specifically calls for the duties, while past challenges succeeded by arguing the administration misapplied older laws.

US Representative Don Beyer, a Virginia Democrat, contended that Trump had wrongly used existing trade laws to advance his agenda and is likely to do the same with the new law. The White House has denied abusing any trade laws. "We don't know when, but you don't need a crystal ball to know what is likely to happen next," Beyer said on social media.

After Trump agreed to move forward with the bill in July following more than a year of delays, US officials pushed for quick passage to give him additional leverage in his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping next week, according to congressional sources. White House legislative director James Braid noted on X that it is the first time in nearly forty years that Congress has granted new tariff authorities to the executive branch. Trump is expected to sign the bill on Friday, a White House official said. The White House did not respond to a request for comment on concerns about the measure's broader scope.

Lack of Clarity on Target Countries

The bill, which passed Congress on Wednesday, aims to deprive Russia of funds used to pay for its nearly five-year war on Ukraine. It authorizes sanctions against Russia's energy and defense industries, as well as its "shadow fleet" of tankers used to evade existing sanctions. Moscow said on Thursday that further US sanctions would make it harder to reach a peace deal in Ukraine.

Jeannette Chu, vice president of the National Foreign Trade Council, said different entities had differing assessments of which countries could be hit since no firm criteria were spelled out. Countries speculated as likely targets include Brazil, India, Japan and EU nations, she said. China said it "consistently opposed long-arm jurisdiction that lacks a basis in international law" while India warned Washington that new tariffs could impact bilateral ties.

In a worst-case scenario, Chu said, Ukraine itself could suffer if the new tariffs cut off Russian oil and gas supplies for refined products in EU countries, given its reliance on diesel from refineries in Hungary and Slovakia.

Not everyone agrees the bill gives the Trump administration too much leeway. The conservative think tank Foundation for Defense of Democracies argues that the bill lays out sufficient criteria on which countries can be hit and rejects the idea that it gives Trump a back door to imposing other tariffs. It noted that the original version of the bill required even higher tariffs of 500%.

Risky Timing

Any new duties would have to be announced just days before the midterm elections, which could push oil prices higher at a time when voters are already unhappy over rising costs. Trump's popularity has declined since he launched a war on Iran in February that has disrupted oil shipments from the Middle East.

"Given the state of the current energy markets, it certainly seems risky," said Ryan Majerus, a former senior US official who served under both Democratic and Republican presidents and is now with law firm King & Spalding. He says Trump could get around the timing issue by imposing a zero-rate tariff and revising it later, at will.

Others say Trump's reluctance to take tough action against Russia since returning to office raises questions about how he will implement the legislation, which also gives him broad authority to waive tariffs or sanctions for national security reasons. That would let him avoid hitting Moscow or its backers harder, simply by notifying Congress, they said.

"This is entirely discretionary," said Ben Harris, a former senior Treasury Department official under former Democratic President Joe Biden. "The definitions are vague and the president has kind of a get-out-of-jail-free card in the form of a waiver."