Fuel crisis drives up Russian trucking costs, adding to inflation

Rising fuel prices, triggered by Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries, are forcing logistics operators to rethink their operations and are adding to inflationary pressures across the country.

Valeria Savenkova, commercial director of logistics operator Logistic Performance, said her company has abandoned long-haul routes across Russia's vast expanse. Fuel prices have climbed 16% to 18% in the past month, pushing up transport costs by 4.5% to 5.5%. The company now focuses on shorter deliveries within the Moscow region and trips to nearby ports.

State statistics agency Rosstat reports that over 70% of all cargo in the first half of 2026 was moved by road, making the sector's rising costs a significant economic concern. While authorities say many fuel shortages have eased after imports and relaxed quality rules, some regions, especially Siberia and areas near China, still face problems.

Freight rates in July, the peak of the crisis, rose 12% to 15% on average, with some routes seeing increases of up to 50%, according to Vitaly Kiselev, head of the commercial transport committee at the Russian Association of Automobile Dealers. Fuel accounts for about 30% of freight expenses, and discounts for carriers have vanished. Higher toll charges, a driver shortage, and seasonal demand for perishable goods have compounded the issue.

Routes from China, Russia's key trading partner, are under particular strain. Georgy Vlastopulo, founder of logistics company Optimalog, said fuel supply disruptions in Zabaykalsky Krai, a major transit point, have pushed rates up 20% to 25% at the peak. The cost of a shipment from China to Moscow has risen by nearly a third to 1.1-1.2 million roubles ($14,000), up from $10,000-$11,000 before the crisis.

Industry players do not expect prices to fall back to previous levels. Kiselev stated there will be no reduction in tariffs. Vlastopulo predicts rates might drop by only 7% to 10% even if the situation normalizes, as companies seek to recover losses from reduced fleet utilization. Clients are increasingly exploring alternatives, with demand for direct rail shipments up 18-20% and sea transport up 10-12%.