Russian Expert Warns Japan's Military and Intelligence Expansion Could Destabilize Asia-Pacific

A prominent Russian security analyst has voiced concerns over Japan's accelerating military modernization and the recent creation of a centralized intelligence body, arguing that these moves could significantly destabilize the Asia-Pacific region.

Vasily Kashin, who directs the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at Moscow's Higher School of Economics, said Japan is on a long-term path to becoming a "full-scale great military power." He noted that Tokyo is pursuing this transformation in close coordination with Washington, with the aim of expanding Japan's role in the U.S. alliance system and supporting American operations well beyond Northeast Asia.

Kashin pointed to several major weapons programs as evidence of this trend, including the deployment of long-range strike missiles based on the Type 12 cruise missile. He added that Japan is also developing hypersonic weapons and more advanced systems such as railguns.

Beyond hardware, the analyst highlighted a significant reorganization of Japan's intelligence apparatus. Tokyo launched the National Intelligence Bureau in late July, upgrading the former Cabinet Intelligence and Research Office. The new body serves as the secretariat for a National Intelligence Council, a central command structure headed by the prime minister and composed of top ministers.

Kashin said this centralization marks a fundamental shift in how Japan conducts espionage. Previously, intelligence functions were embedded across various government agencies; now they are being consolidated under one roof. He warned this paves the way for a stronger, more capable intelligence agency and will intensify what he called the "clandestine war" among intelligence services already active in the region.

The Japanese government has framed its military expansion as a necessary response to growing external threats. Kashin, however, dismissed this rationale, particularly the emphasis on the so-called "China threat." He argued that China is not militarizing, noting that its defense spending as a share of GDP has remained relatively stable for a long time. In contrast, he said, Japan and many other U.S. allies have significantly increased the share of their economies devoted to defense.