Russian farmers sceptical of grain export rescue, urge sowing cuts
Russian farmers and analysts doubt government measures to revive grain exports amid Black Sea disruptions, calling for sowing cuts to ease domestic oversupply.
Russian farmers and market analysts have voiced doubts about the government's latest efforts to sustain grain exports, with some producers urging a reduction in winter sowing to prevent a domestic price collapse.
Exports from Russia and Ukraine through the Black Sea have stalled amid tit-for-tat attacks, leaving a surplus in the Russian market and pushing prices down. The government has proposed rerouting shipments, scrapping the grain export duty until year-end, buying grain for state reserves, and offering rail subsidies and loan extensions to producers.
Andrey Sizov of the consultancy Sovecon said these measures are unlikely to meaningfully support exports or prices. "Until logistics in the Black and Azov Seas improve, grain will continue to accumulate within Russia, maintaining pressure on domestic prices," he said. Sizov called for a permanent removal of the export duty, introduced in 2021, rather than a temporary suspension.
Alternative routes via the Baltic, Caspian, or even Arctic seas have been floated, but analysts note they come at a higher cost. Deputy Agriculture Minister Maxim Borovoi said the Northern Sea Route is now under consideration, though Russia currently ships no grain through the Arctic.
Arkady Zlochevsky of the Russian Grain Union said rerouting via the Baltic would add $30 to $50 per metric ton, and that alternative ports could only partially offset lost southern volumes. "In a good scenario, only by half," he said, warning that a prolonged export pause would be catastrophic.
The situation is compounded by a strong harvest, with over 100 million tons already collected against a total of 141 million tons last year. The People's Farmer lobby has asked the government to cut winter sowing areas and compensate producers for the reduction.
Borovoi rejected the proposal, saying it would breach food security. "The reduction in sowing is definitely a breach of food security, because the process will be quite uncontrollable," he said.