New Wave of Emigration from Russia as Fears of Mobilization and Internet Curbs Grow

A 28-year-old digital content marketer packed his suitcases and duct-taped boxes in the southern Russian city of Krasnodar this summer, preparing to leave behind his family, his girlfriend, and his elderly grandparents. Speaking on condition of anonymity for security reasons, he said the decision was wrenching. "It is very sad to leave Russia," he said before heading for the border with Georgia. "If it weren't for the political situation and the difficulties with blocked services, I would never in my life have left for more than a few months."

His reasons were twofold: the political climate and the government's tightening restrictions on internet access, which he said made his work increasingly difficult. "Here I can at least do my work on my phone," he said from Tbilisi, where he now rents an apartment. "In Russia, it's much more difficult." He also acknowledged that rumors of a new mobilization unsettled him, even though his Category B status exempts him from peacetime conscription. "You never know what will happen tomorrow," he said.

He is not alone. Since mid-July, human rights activist Yan Slovitsky, who coordinates the "Ark" project in Yerevan, Armenia, has observed a surge in departures. "There has been a wave of panic in Russia linked to the risks of mobilization, fuel shortages, and the lack of internet access," Slovitsky said. "People are living in conditions that fall below the standards of human dignity. This time, people are leaving well in advance because they saw what happened during previous waves." He warned that Armenia may already be experiencing a migration crisis.

The current exodus is smaller than the mass flight of 2022, when hundreds of thousands left after a partial military call-up. There are no long lines at border crossings or shortages of plane tickets to visa-free destinations such as Armenia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, and Turkey. Yet a group that helps citizens settle abroad reported receiving nearly eight times more queries last month than in May.

In Yerevan, real estate broker Levon Patvakanyan has noticed a shift among buyers. "We're seeing more people who have always lived comfortably in Russia but want to buy real estate here, more as an investment and more as a sort of fallback option," he said, attributing the trend to predictions of another mobilization.

Among those who left is Daniil Neonov, a former candidate for the Moscow City Duma, who said he departed at the last minute. "If I'd waited even another day or two, they most likely wouldn't have let me leave because they'd blocked my exit," he said, adding that he had received an electronic summons. Now in Yerevan, he is trying to build a new community. "It's great that there are events like this," he said at an Ark project meeting. "Here, you can chat with someone and exchange contact information."

The emigration is fueled in part by recent Ukrainian drone attacks inside Russia, which caused an unprecedented fuel crisis and disrupted the e-commerce sector. The government has cited the attacks to justify harsh internet restrictions. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and other officials have said Russia is planning another mobilization after the State Duma election concluding on September 20, claims the Kremlin has repeatedly rejected.

Social media videos from across Russia show people citing conflict-related reasons, economic decline, and shrinking freedoms for their decisions to leave. The numbers are difficult to gauge, but the trend is clear: for many, the uncertainty has become too great to stay.