Saudi Red Sea oil shipments go dark as Houthi attacks escalate

Saudi crude exports from the Red Sea are increasingly being conducted without public tracking signals, as tanker operators seek to evade attacks by Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi forces. Analysts report that all recent loadings from the port of Yanbu have been carried out "dark," meaning vessels have switched off their Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponders.

The Houthis declared a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia on July 20, and have since claimed attacks on Saudi-linked tankers, oil facilities, and the Jazan refinery on the Red Sea coast. The threat has prompted more vessels to operate without visible tracking data, clouding visibility into Saudi oil exports and making it harder to assess the degree of disruption to crude flows.

Ship-tracking firms have produced widely differing estimates of Saudi export volumes. For the week beginning August 3, Vortexa estimated Yanbu loadings at 2.38 million barrels per day, down from 2.71 million the previous week. Kpler calculated a sharper drop to 1.78 million bpd from 4.04 million, while AXSMarine reported a rise to 640,000 bpd from about 420,000 bpd.

"Last week Yanbu liftings were all conducted dark. We're not seeing any loadings with AIS on at the moment," said Vortexa analyst George Morris. Kpler analyst Nhway Khin Soe added that about 70% of Saudi west coast loadings over the past few weeks were dark, with all Yanbu cargoes loaded since July 23 involving vessels without continuous AIS coverage.

Shipping traffic through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait at the southern tip of the Red Sea has also declined. An average of 32 vessels a day transited the waterway last week, down from about 50 a day before the Houthis announced their latest blockade.

In response, Saudi Arabia has been routing more oil north through the Red Sea, either via the Suez Canal or Egypt's SUMED pipeline, which connects Ain Sokhna on the Red Sea to Sidi Kerir on the Mediterranean. Crude and condensate loadings at Sidi Kerir averaged a record 2.17 million bpd last week, roughly 50% higher than the previous week, with about 90% of the total being Saudi crude, according to Vortexa.

The cost of war risk insurance has jumped in recent days, and tanker companies are adjusting their sailing strategies. DHT, a major tanker operator, previously exited the Red Sea via Bab al-Mandeb when lifting oil. "That has become a bit more challenging as of late," said DHT CEO Svein Moxnes Harfjeld. "It's fair to say most of the VLCC loadings, not just ours, have been directed north, northwest now."