188 Indian scientists urge coordinated study of looming 'Super' El Niño

A group of 188 Indian scientists and ecologists has issued a joint appeal urging fellow researchers and field practitioners to prepare for the effects of an approaching El Niño, the global weather phenomenon that weakens the monsoon and brings extreme heat and dry conditions to the subcontinent.

In the Pacific Ocean, where El Niño originates, sea surface temperatures have climbed steadily past the 0.5°C threshold and reached +2.6°C in August 2026. Projections point to anomalies of up to +4°C — higher than at any point in the past 1,000 years, according to reconstructions from coral cores.

The signatories warn that India's natural systems face a range of potentially devastating impacts in the coming months, including widespread coral bleaching and mortality, a rise in wildfires, and the death of large rainforest trees. With drought and extreme heat highly likely, they say farmers, fishers and shepherds could be hit hard. Less visible effects — delayed fruit production or shifts in animal behaviour — may prove equally significant but are easy to miss without deliberate observation.

The 'Call to Action' asks scientists to use the warning signs as an opportunity to mobilise as a community and document how the event affects India's nature, arguing that stronger science and record-keeping are essential to building a climate-resilient future.

Jayashree Ratnam, a scientist at the National Centre for Biological Sciences, described the coming year as a litmus test for tropical forests and trees. Large forest trees may look indestructible, she said, but many in the Western Ghats are already close to the heat they can tolerate, and big trees are especially vulnerable to prolonged droughts. Urban trees face added stress from the heat island effect, she added, stressing the need to understand how the El Niño will affect plants that underpin all other life.

Rohan Arthur, a marine biologist with the Nature Conservation Foundation, said he had seen the devastating effects of past El Niños on India's coral reefs. Reefs can be remarkably resilient, he noted, but need at least a decade after a major die-back to recover significantly. The last major El Niño occurred in 2024, and barely two years later the projected scale and intensity of the heat wave now approaching is alarming, he said.

Roxy Mathew Koll, a climate scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, said the monsoon season is closing with a rainfall deficit, but the consequences may not end there. They can spill into the seasons ahead and cascade through depleted soil moisture and water storage, land and marine heatwaves, stressed crops and livelihoods, forest fires, coral bleaching and less visible ecological changes, he said. That leaves a short but valuable window to act — documenting changes as they unfold, safeguarding remaining ecosystems and easing the pressures already weakening them, so that what is learned and protected during this El Niño helps India prepare for a warmer, more volatile future.