Sherrod Brown Bets on Mahoning Valley Comeback in Ohio Senate Race

In a union hall basement in Youngstown, Ohio, retired laborers recently reflected on the decades-long erosion of the region's steel industry and the jobs that once sustained it. One longtime member of a laborers' union recalled telling his children to get an education, leave, and not return, because he saw no future for blue-collar work there.

That story is familiar across the industrial Midwest, where plant closures and economic frustration helped propel Donald Trump's political rise. During a 2017 visit to Youngstown as president, Trump promised the jobs that had left Ohio would return, even urging residents not to sell their homes. Nearly a decade later, the old industrial economy has not come back, and Democrats are hoping the political pendulum is swinging their way again.

Two years after losing his Senate seat, Democrat Sherrod Brown is attempting a comeback, aiming to win back voters who abandoned his party. He is trying to channel discontent over the economy, the war in Iran, and the spread of artificial intelligence data centers to unseat Republican Sen. Jon Husted in November.

Brown's path to Washington runs through parts of Ohio that have been drifting away from Democrats for years. His race is also part of a broader Democratic effort to compete in Republican-leaning states such as Ohio, Iowa, Alaska, and Texas in order to win control of the Senate. Democrats need to net four seats, requiring them to compete deep in Republican territory.

For years, Brown managed to outrun his party's decline in Ohio. His pro-labor populism appealed to enough swing voters to deliver victories from the statehouse to Congress. Trump carried Ohio by 8 points in 2016, four years after Barack Obama won the state, yet Brown won a third Senate term two years later, performing well in places like Mahoning County, anchored by Youngstown.

By 2024, even Brown could not hold on. He lost his reelection bid to Republican Bernie Moreno by 3.5 percentage points. Trump carried Mahoning County by more than 10,000 votes, a striking reversal in a county Obama had won by nearly 30 points just 12 years earlier. With Trump's endorsement, Moreno won the county by just 220 votes. Neighboring Trumbull County shifted from backing Obama by 23 points in 2012 to Trump by nearly 17 points in 2024.

A politics professor at Youngstown State University said the Mahoning Valley has struggled with deindustrialization and job loss for years, and that politicians in power seemed to understand the problem but did not do enough about it. After decades of supporting candidates, people began to say the old approach never worked for them. Trump and other Republicans offered something different, the professor said, even if they did not keep their promises and the county remains poor.

Two months before the end of midterm campaigns, high gas prices stemming from the war in Iran have deepened economic discontent. Trump has also escalated a trade war with neighboring Canada, a fight with particular implications for Ohio, which exported $17.5 billion in goods to Canada in 2025, nearly a third of the state's total exports, according to federal statistics.

The economic strain is visible in Parma, a working-class Cleveland suburb that split its ticket in 2024, backing both Trump and Brown. At a watch party for the Republican midterm convention in Dallas, supporters who stayed late cheered Trump but acknowledged that other issues would likely decide the midterms. A Parma city councilor said economics, gas prices, and grocery prices would move the needle. The city's Republican Party president said everyone is concerned about high gas prices and that people remember how much money is in their wallets.

Husted presents a different opponent than the one Brown faced two years ago. His restrained demeanor contrasts with Moreno, the brash former car dealer who entered politics as an outsider. Husted spent nearly 25 years in Ohio politics as a state lawmaker, House speaker, secretary of state, and lieutenant governor before being tapped to fill Vice President JD Vance's Senate seat. But he may not need to generate much enthusiasm of his own: except for Brown and candidates for the Ohio Supreme Court, a Democrat has not won a statewide race for state office in Ohio since 2008.

A 37-year-old Italian restaurant owner who hosted the Parma Republicans' watch party has attended more than 80 Trump rallies and remains a strong supporter, but said he has not followed Husted closely and does not know him well, though he will vote for him.

Brown faces enthusiasm problems of his own as he asks voters to return a 73-year-old former senator they rejected just two years ago. A 67-year-old longtime Youngstown resident who leans Democratic but has voted Republican said she will not support Husted because she does not believe he has listened enough to the community, adding that she never hears from him. But Brown is not necessarily the candidate she wishes Democrats were offering either, calling him her best option while saying she would like to see younger people running.

The race is being flooded with money as both sides try to drum up enthusiasm and define the choice. Husted and allied Republican groups have already spent more than $80 million, with $86 million more reserved through Election Day, according to AdImpact. Brown and Democratic groups have spent $69 million, with $67 million reserved. Elon Musk has also waded in through his America PAC, which is running online and streaming ads attacking Brown over transgender issues.

Brown's campaign manager said billionaires are lying to try to bail out their "Golden Boy" because Husted has always put special interests ahead of Ohio. Brown has sought to make data centers central to the race, an issue that has generated bipartisan outrage in communities across the country. His allies have called Husted the face of Ohio's data center boom, blaming the massive facilities for contributing to rising electricity costs. Husted helped promote Ohio as a destination for data centers while serving as lieutenant governor.

The ads and backlash have generated enough concern among Republicans that an internal party memo described data centers as an "anchor" around Husted in the race. A spokesperson for Husted said 32 years in Washington turned Brown into a liar, that Husted is fighting to lower costs and help Ohioans keep more of what they earn, and that Husted introduced legislation requiring data center companies to pay for the power they use and return excess electricity to the grid.

In Youngstown, union retirees who watched the Mahoning Valley shift toward Republicans are not convinced the movement is permanent. A business manager for a laborers' local said the region's voters remain open to persuasion as the campaign enters its final stretch.