Six Months On, Iran War Is a Stalemate With Global Fallout

Six months after the United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran, what President Donald Trump once called a "little excursion" has become a deeply unpopular stalemate. Iran has not surrendered, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely disrupted, and there is no clear path to ending the conflict. In apparent recognition that further military strikes won't force concessions, Washington is now reverting to economic pressure. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has told allies that new attacks are unlikely "for the time being."

Here are six of the war's probable enduring consequences:

1. Trump Pays a Political Price The war was unpopular at its outset and has become more so. Trump's approval rating has fallen from 40% to 33% since the conflict began, according to polling, as rising gas prices undercut his promise to lower costs. Just 31% of the country approve of the conflict—a lower number than other recent U.S. conflicts at a similar stage. Voter anger over high prices poses a problem for the Republican Party before November's midterm elections. The conflict has also widened a rift between isolationist Republicans and those who want to keep military pressure on Tehran.

2. Global Economy Shaken, But Resilient The strikes triggered immediate alarm because the Strait of Hormuz carries roughly a fifth of the world's energy supplies. The disruption sent oil prices sharply higher and prompted fears of a global downturn. The damage has been significant but less severe than feared. The IMF has cut its global growth forecast twice since the war began, now expecting 3.0% growth this year, down from 3.3% in January. Still, major economies are less energy-intensive than in the 1970s, and strong spending and investment—including a boom in artificial intelligence—have cushioned the blow.

3. Iran Wounded but Not Defeated Iran's military and economy have suffered severe damage, but Tehran can still launch attacks and keep the Strait of Hormuz closed. U.S. forces have destroyed 161 Iranian naval vessels and disabled 82% of its air-defense systems, according to testimony to Congress. However, Iran retains drones and missiles and has successfully attacked shipping and U.S. installations. The U.S. can determine with certainty that it has destroyed only about a third of Iran's missile arsenal. The war has deepened Iran's economic crisis—food inflation hit 128% year-on-year in July—but it has also pushed political divisions into the background and prompted a tougher crackdown on dissent.

4. Middle East Destabilized, Allies Exposed The war was meant to remove Iran as a threat, but analysts say it has instead emboldened Tehran and left the region less secure. Iranian attacks on U.S.-allied Gulf Arab states hit military and diplomatic facilities and disrupted air travel. Attacks on shipping, combined with a Houthi blockade in the Red Sea, have raised insurance and transport costs, disrupting supply chains and adding to uncertainty for Gulf economies.

5. Iran's Nuclear Breakout Time Extended Strikes have badly damaged three of Iran's known enrichment plants and killed leading nuclear scientists. U.S. intelligence now puts Iran's estimated nuclear "breakout time" at up to one year, from up to six months before the war. However, the true state of the program is uncertain because U.N. inspectors have not returned. The IAEA has been unable to verify the location of roughly 440 kg of uranium enriched to 60% since the 2025 strikes. Iran has long denied seeking a nuclear bomb.

6. U.S. Military Readiness Diminished Since the war started, 18 U.S. service members have been killed and over 750 injured. The military has lost drones and aircraft, with 42 aircraft lost in the conflict. Munitions are a major concern: the U.S. has used "virtually all" of its global supply of certain precision missiles, about 65% of its Patriot interceptors, and reduced its THAAD interceptor stockpile by at least 38%. Washington has shifted assets from Europe and the Asia-Pacific, extending deployments. The USS Gerald R. Ford spent more than a year deployed, the Navy's longest warship deployment since the Vietnam War, highlighting how the war is stretching U.S. assets.