Six months on, the Iran war is a stalemate with global fallout

Six months after the United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran, a conflict President Donald Trump once called a "little excursion" has settled into a deeply unpopular stalemate. Iran has not surrendered, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely disrupted, and there is no clear path to ending the war that Trump predicted would be over in four weeks.

In an apparent shift, the U.S. is now reverting to economic pressure, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio telling allies that new attacks are unlikely "for the time being." While the endgame is unclear, several enduring consequences of the war are already visible.

1. Trump's political standing has eroded

The war was unpopular from the start and has become more so. Trump's approval rating has dropped from 40% to 33% since the conflict began, according to Varta Wire/Ipsos polling, as rising gas prices undercut his 2024 campaign promise to lower costs. Just 31% of the country approve of the conflict, a lower figure than other recent U.S. conflicts at a similar stage. Voter anger over high prices poses a problem for the Republican Party ahead of November's midterm elections, and the war has widened a rift between isolationist Republicans and those who want to keep military pressure on Tehran.

2. The global economy has been shaken, but not broken

The attacks triggered immediate alarm because the Strait of Hormuz carries roughly a fifth of the world's energy supplies. Oil prices spiked, and the IMF has cut its global growth forecast twice since the war began, now expecting 3.0% growth this year versus 3.3% in January. However, the damage has been less severe than feared. Major economies are less energy-intensive than in the 1970s, and strong spending and investment, including a boom in artificial intelligence, have cushioned the blow.

3. Iran is wounded but not defeated

Iran's military and economy have suffered severe damage, but Tehran can still launch attacks and keep the Strait of Hormuz closed. U.S. forces have destroyed 161 Iranian naval vessels and disabled 82% of its air-defense systems, according to Admiral Brad Cooper. Yet Iran retains drones and missiles, and has successfully attacked shipping and U.S. installations. The U.S. can only confirm destroying about a third of Iran's missile arsenal. The war has deepened Iran's economic crisis, with food inflation hitting 128% year-on-year in July, but it has also pushed political divisions into the background and prompted a tougher crackdown on dissent.

4. The Middle East is less secure

Analysts say the war has emboldened Tehran and left the region less secure. Iranian missile and drone attacks on U.S.-allied Gulf states hit military and diplomatic facilities and disrupted air travel. Combined with a Houthi blockade in the Red Sea, Iran's attacks on shipping have raised insurance and transport costs, disrupting supply chains and adding uncertainty for Gulf economies.

5. Iran's nuclear program has been set back

The strikes badly damaged three of Iran's known enrichment plants and killed leading nuclear scientists. U.S. intelligence now puts Iran's nuclear "breakout time" at up to one year, from up to six months before the war. However, the true state of the program is uncertain because U.N. inspectors have not returned, and the IAEA has been unable to verify the location of roughly 440 kg of uranium enriched to 60% since the 2025 strikes.

6. U.S. military readiness has been diminished

The U.S. military has lost 42 aircraft in the conflict, and has used "virtually all" of its global supply of certain precision missiles. By July, the U.S. had used about 65% of its Patriot interceptors and reduced its THAAD interceptor stockpile by at least 38%. Washington has shifted assets from Europe and the Asia-Pacific to the Middle East, extending deployments. The USS Gerald R. Ford spent more than a year deployed, its longest since the Vietnam War, and the USS Abraham Lincoln was replaced after 200 consecutive days at sea, highlighting how the war is stretching U.S. forces.