South Africa swings to current account deficit as Iran war inflates import bill

South Africa's current account shifted into deficit in the second quarter of 2026, reversing a strong surplus recorded in the opening three months of the year, as the conflict in the Middle East pushed up the cost of imported fuel, central bank data released on Thursday showed.

The current account deficit stood at 2.6% of gross domestic product in the April-to-June period, compared with a surplus of 2.3% in the first quarter, according to the South African Reserve Bank. In rand terms, the shortfall amounted to 205.5 billion rand (about $12.81 billion), against a surplus of 181.6 billion rand in January-March.

The swing was driven largely by a sharp contraction in the trade surplus, which narrowed to 146.4 billion rand from 428.8 billion rand in the previous quarter. The central bank attributed the deterioration to a surge in the value of crude oil and refined petroleum product imports, linking it to heightened supply concerns arising from the ongoing war in the Middle East.

The divergence between volumes and prices was stark. For crude, the value of imports climbed 82.1% while the quantity imported rose by just 1.8%, indicating that higher prices rather than greater demand accounted for most of the increase in the import bill.

South Africa imports the bulk of its fuel, leaving the economy heavily exposed to swings in global energy prices. The U.S.-Israeli war against Iran began in late February, setting the stage for the cost pressures that have now fed through to the country's external accounts. The rand was quoted at 16.0400 to the dollar in the data release.