Southeast Asia Pushes Ahead With 100 GW Gas Build-Out Despite LNG Supply Risks

Southeast Asia is pressing ahead with a large expansion of gas-fired power and liquefied natural gas import infrastructure, even as the ongoing conflict in the Middle East sharpens concerns about supply security, data from US think tank Global Energy Monitor shows.

According to the research, the region is developing more than 100 gigawatts of gas-fired generating capacity alongside 70 million tonnes per annum of LNG import capacity. The combined pipeline of power generation and import terminal projects represents an estimated $160 billion in investment.

The build-out rests on assumptions that LNG imports will remain available and competitively priced, and that domestic supplies can fill any gap when shipments are disrupted. Global Energy Monitor cautioned that the continued expansion of import infrastructure risks deepening the region's exposure to the same supply disruptions and price volatility that the Middle East crisis has brought into focus.

Blockades in the Strait of Hormuz have, in particular, heightened the supply risks associated with greater dependence on imported LNG. The impact is expected to fall especially heavily on price-sensitive markets in emerging Asia and Africa.

"The consequences of the conflict have not yet translated into a fundamental change in Southeast Asia's infrastructure trajectory," said Warda Ajaz, who manages Global Energy Monitor's Asia Gas Tracker. "But the conflict has exposed the fragility of some of the assumptions supporting that expansion."

The expansion was already encountering significant headwinds before the Middle East conflict. More than 35 GW of gas power capacity was shelved or cancelled in 2025, while 65 mtpa of LNG import capacity had been shelved or cancelled by September last year.

Some countries are beginning to reassess their plans. Thailand and Vietnam have both started to rethink their strategies and reduce their exposure to LNG supply risks. The Philippines has shelved or cancelled 11.2 GW of gas power capacity between the second half of 2025 and the first half of 2026, although 13.8 GW remained in development, the data showed.