SP-Congress Alliance Talks Heat Up as Akhilesh Yadav Flexes Muscle in Rae Bareilly

Alliance Friction, Not Rivalry, Drives UP Churn

With Uttar Pradesh five months from a make-or-break Assembly election, the sharpest political friction is not between rivals but between allies. Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav, an ally of Rahul Gandhi and the Congress, launched a 'rath yatra' on Thursday from Rae Bareilly — the Gandhi family's oldest stronghold — rather than from a BJP or SP bastion.

During the visit, Yadav met MLAs and victims of a recent clash between Samajwadi Party and ABVP workers. Over the coming days, he is expected to visit the homes of people affected by police or administrative crackdowns.

The choice of starting point carries political meaning. In the 2022 Assembly polls, despite the absence of any pact with the Congress, the Samajwadi Party won four Assembly segments in Rae Bareilly. The launch is therefore being read less as an effort to strengthen the alliance's fortunes and more as a signal that the SP holds pole position in the state — including in Rae Bareilly — ahead of seat-sharing talks with Rahul Gandhi.

Congress's New Confidence

Historically, Yadav has not been an aggressive ally despite his party's strength in UP. This time, however, he has introduced a subtle edge. The shift follows the Congress's successful outing at Jantar Mantar and Rahul Gandhi's engagements with young and first-time voters, which have led the party to conclude that Gandhi has entered a political pivot season.

Alongside its broader campaigns — uniting India through 'Bharat Jodo', protecting the Constitution through 'Samvidhan Bachao', and pressing for a caste census — the party has added a sharper, more ground-level focus, with its political face seen on issues closer to the public nerve. Party leaders say the political top is no longer forcing issues down. The outings have visibly lifted cadres and leaders across the country, including in regions where the Congress depends on strong allies, creating a growing feel-good factor.

Seat-Sharing Math

This confidence has already shaped the build-up to seat-sharing for UP's 403 seats. There is unanimity that the two parties must ally and work out a formula, with serious talks likely to begin in early October. Both sides are currently assessing their individual strengths and weaknesses constituency by constituency to build their bargaining pitches.

About a month ago, the Congress began flexing its muscles. State leaders publicly urged the Samajwadi Party not to delay candidate selection and demanded a respectable or equal share for a "rejuvenated Congress". Saharanpur MP Imran Masood said on Monday that if an alliance is to be formed it should be finalised, otherwise the Congress must proceed with its own preparations, adding that the political climate nationally shows only the Congress can take on the BJP. He warned that both parties could forget winning if the pact is not decided soon, and said the SP was delaying clarity.

The AICC in-charge for UP, Rajendra Pal Gautam, earlier conveyed a veiled demand for an equal share while remaining open to negotiations. State Congress chief Ajay Rai went further, saying Rahul Gandhi will take the final decision but that if there is disagreement with the SP, the party is ready to contest all seats.

The stance sits awkwardly with 2017 and 2024, when the two allied and the Congress was the slower partner.

SP Sets Its Baseline

The public posturing has incensed the Samajwadi Party leadership, and insiders in both parties indicate tough bargaining lies ahead. The SP has indicated it will contest a minimum of 328 seats, leaving close to 75 for the Congress — anything more, its leaders say, would be beyond the Congress's calibre.

The formula rests on simple arithmetic: the six Lok Sabha seats won by the Congress in 2024 translate to roughly 30 Assembly seats, while the 17 Lok Sabha seats it contested make up about 85 Assembly seats. The SP has already finalised candidates for around 150 seats without consulting the Congress — of which about 100 of its 111 sitting MLAs are likely to be repeated, along with some 45 new faces.

A senior aide to Akhilesh Yadav claimed the Congress cadre remains in disarray and lacks the support of a large caste block, adding that without the SP even Muslim voters would not back the party.

Congress's Organisational Push

To address its weak organisation before negotiations, the Congress launched a 'Sangathan Srijan Abhiyan' on Rahul Gandhi's orders. Observers were sent to 75 districts and brought back reports from districts, blocks and villages, which are being used for organisational appointments and to select district presidents. Rajendra Pal Gautam has said teams will be ready by September 24, after which seat-sharing talks will begin.

Samajwadi Party leaders have dismissed the exercise. One senior leader remarked that creating an organisation just before seat negotiations raises questions about political effectiveness, claiming district office-bearer names are being cleared within minutes. A party leader in Kannauj said a recent 'Srijan Abhiyan' meeting there drew only about 30 participants.

Undeterred, the Congress is aiming high, staking claim to nothing less than 135-150 seats. A senior party leader argued that the 126 seats the SP has not won in the last three Assembly polls could go to the Congress, with additional claims in Eastern and Western UP and Bundelkhand.