Super El Niño could cause 15,800 extra deaths in India, study projects

The ongoing "Super El Niño" could lead to nearly 451,000 additional deaths worldwide over the next six months compared with a normal year, with India accounting for roughly 15,800 of them, according to a study by the Climate Impact Lab at the University of Chicago.

For India, close to half of those deaths are expected to fall between December and February, and the toll is projected to keep rising into the summer months, the assessment found.

What is El Niño?

El Niño is a recurring climate pattern driven by unusual warming of sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean. It typically occurs every two to seven years, is linked to weakening trade winds, and can persist for up to 12 months, influencing rainfall and temperatures across the globe. The World Meteorological Organisation has warned that this year's event could be exceptionally strong, possibly reaching levels unseen since modern monitoring began.

Warmer months ahead

The researchers estimate that average land temperatures worldwide could stay 1.2°C above normal during the coming months, and that the number of extremely hot days could rise by 44% over what would ordinarily be expected. El Niño began in June and is expected to last until spring in the Northern Hemisphere. The unusually warm conditions, the study notes, could resemble temperatures that climate change is expected to bring about 20 years from now.

Global South most exposed

The projected 451,000 additional deaths between September 2026 and February 2027 are expected to fall disproportionately on countries in the Global South. Africa's Sahel region, including Nigeria, Sudan, Niger and Chad, could record about 66,800 additional deaths, with Nigeria alone accounting for roughly 31,400. Southeast Asia, including the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia, could see another 19,400, while Indonesia is projected to record about 19,300. Brazil could be the worst-affected country in South America, with around 13,300 deaths linked to El Niño-related heat.

The study compares the projected toll with the roughly 6,800 people believed dead or missing after the recent Nepal flash floods, noting the El Niño figure is about 65 times larger. Those floods and debris flows on August 26 destroyed the Gyirong Port on the China-Nepal border and affected settlements along a 72-km stretch of Nepal's Trishuli River.

Emergency measures can save lives

Tamma Carleton, Faculty Head of Research at the Climate Impact Lab and a co-author of the report, said immediate action could still reduce fatalities this year. She pointed to heat alerts, outreach to vulnerable groups, cooling centres, hydration stations, better protection for outdoor workers and expanded healthcare capacity as measures that could prevent tens of thousands of deaths.

"Increasing emergency response and better targeting of efforts can still save many lives this year," she said. "However, 20 years from now, once today's extreme temperatures become the new normal, we do not want to be in a constant state of emergency. We need to mobilise resources now to design, deploy, and evaluate the preparation and planning tools that will save lives in the years ahead."