Super El Niño could drive 451,000 excess deaths by February 2027, researchers warn
Climate Impact Lab warns a 'super El Niño' could cause 451,000 excess deaths globally through February 2027, with Africa's Sahel and Southeast Asia among the worst-hit regions.
A powerful El Niño weather pattern could lead to as many as 451,000 excess deaths worldwide over the six months ending February 2027, according to projections from the University of Chicago's Climate Impact Lab.
The researchers estimate that the number of extremely hot days during the period will be about 44% higher than in a normal year, driving up heat-related mortality across several regions.
Nigeria is expected to record the highest toll from excess heat-related fatalities between September 2026 and February 2027, with 31,400 deaths. Indonesia follows with 19,300 and Sudan with 17,600.
In Africa's Sahel region, which includes Niger and Chad as well as Nigeria and Sudan, the additional deaths over the six-month window are projected at 66,800.
The Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia are together expected to see an additional 19,400 deaths.
The lab cautioned that the toll could rise further if El Niño persists into 2027, noting that key parts of the northern hemisphere — including India and Pakistan — would be especially exposed during their summer months.
Describing the current El Niño as a "postcard from the future", the researchers said it is delivering temperatures that are expected to become normal within a few decades.
The report calls for emergency response efforts to be concentrated in high-priority regions to curb heat-related deaths in the months ahead.
"This report allows decision makers to see exactly where emergency actions can be taken now to save tens of thousands of lives in the coming months," said Michael Greenstone, an economist at the University of Chicago and co-founder of the lab.