Super El Niño warming may add 15,800 heat deaths in India, study projects

India could record roughly 15,800 additional heat-related deaths between September 2026 and February 2027 compared with a normal year, driven largely by the ongoing Super El Niño, according to a new projection by the University of Chicago's Climate Impact Lab (CIL).

The analysis warns that global land temperatures during the period will run about 1.2°C above normal, exposing populations to conditions resembling the heat that climate change is expected to deliver two decades from now. The forecast also points to 44 per cent more extremely hot days than in a typical year.

Worldwide, the report attributes 4,51,000 excess deaths to the current El Niño episode since it began in June, with 2,39,000 of those falling inside the six-month forecast window. The researchers compare that toll to roughly 65 times the number of people believed dead or missing in the recent Nepal flash flood.

El Niño is a weather phenomenon marked by abnormal warming of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. It suppresses the Indian monsoon and pushes temperatures higher.

How India fares

India is projected to be the fourth hardest-hit country, behind Nigeria, Indonesia and Sudan. The Sahel regions of Nigeria, Sudan, Niger and Chad are expected to carry the heaviest burden, with about 66,800 additional deaths. The Southeast Asian bloc of the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia is estimated to see 19,400 combined excess deaths.

India's toll is expected to build over time rather than peak early. Between December 2026 and February 2027 alone, the country is projected to record about 7,400 additional heat deaths.

Unlike other regions in the six-month window, India's risk does not taper off. The researchers specifically flag India and Pakistan as northern hemisphere countries where heat-related mortality will likely keep climbing into their summer months, beyond the current forecast horizon.

Emily Grover-Kopec, a co-author of the report, said northern India's winters are normally cold enough that heat rarely drives deaths there, so a warmer-than-usual winter will not move the numbers much. Southern India is different, she noted: normal winter temperatures there stay warm enough to cause heat deaths on their own, so abnormal warmth layered on top pushes deaths up sharply. That is part of why India ranks fourth globally for projected heat deaths this winter, even as the sharper regional increases sit further south, she added.

Grover-Kopec, who is also director of the climate and energy practice at Rhodium Group, said the mortality estimates draw on CIL research on how temperature relates to excess deaths, built separately for 24,378 regions worldwide to account for local climate, vulnerability and adaptive capacity. Those relationships are applied to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts' seasonal forecast, producing projected excess deaths against the 1996-2025 average. The margin of error reflects uncertainty across the 51-member forecast ensemble and uncertainty in the mortality relationships themselves.

She described the model as rigorous and evolving, built to sharpen as more evidence comes in.

The report's authors — Michael Greenstone, Tamma Carleton, Genevieve Maricle and Grover-Kopec — argue that because deaths are forecast months in advance, governments and humanitarian organisations have a window to intervene through heat early-warning systems, cooling centres, hydration stations, worker protections and expanded health outreach. They describe the current warm spell as a "postcard from the future," noting that the added lead time, compared with long-term climate change, gives India and other at-risk nations a rare opportunity to act before, rather than after, deaths occur.