Supreme Court ruling on mail voting order sparks uncertainty for midterms

The Supreme Court's decision on Monday to allow President Donald Trump's executive order restricting mail voting to proceed for now has not changed any election procedures, but it has cast doubt over a voting method used by nearly a third of Americans. The court did not rule on the order's legality; it only said that a challenge by Democratic-led states was premature. That restarts the legal battle on an extremely tight timeline, with the first ballots for overseas and military voters in North Carolina set to be mailed on September 4.

A separate injunction blocking the U.S. Postal Service from implementing changes tied to the order remains in place, but the administration has filed a motion to lift it. New postal regulations, published late Monday, would require specific envelope formatting for mail ballots and an electronic system for states to identify mail voters. Non-compliant states would see their ballots undelivered.

Critics, including Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson in her dissent, warned that the decision "needlessly injects chaos and uncertainty" into the midterms. Election officials across the country echoed that concern. Jesse Salinas, a California county registrar, noted that ballots in his state go out in 11 days and envelopes are already printed. "The capacity to do that, I just don't see it," he said.

Tammy Patrick of the Elections Center said no state currently runs its elections in the way the new rule requires. "There isn't a single state that does their elections in a way that this postal rule lays out," she said. Nevada's Secretary of State Cisco Aguilar called the timeline "impossible," pointing to recent mail delivery errors in his state.

Legal experts remain skeptical that the order will be implemented in time. The Supreme Court's unsigned order did not address the constitutionality of the measure, and opponents are preparing new lawsuits. UCLA law professor Rick Hasen said it is "practically impossible to enforce" the order for November. Notre Dame's Derek Muller noted the ruling puts courts in a difficult position, with any decision coming close to the election.

Trump has long sought to restrict mail voting, which he falsely blamed for his 2020 loss. The Election Assistance Commission reported that 29% of voters cast mail ballots in 2024, with Democrats more likely to use the method. Election officials, already stretched thin, are struggling to plan for a potential disruption affecting a large share of voters. As Patrick put it, "How do you plan for something that affects one-third, one half, or all of your voters?"