Supreme Court allows Trump mail-voting order to proceed, for now

The Supreme Court has declined to block President Donald Trump's executive order on mail voting, but the decision is far from a final verdict on its legality. The Court ruled that a challenge brought by Democratic-led states was premature, effectively restarting the legal battle on an extremely compressed timeline as the November midterms approach.

Notre Dame law professor Derek Muller explained that the ruling leaves the core constitutional questions unresolved. "The Supreme Court's decision in Trump versus California, again, sort of says we'll resolve the merits of this question another day," he said. The Court's unsigned order noted it has not determined whether the measure is constitutional.

Three justices — Sotomayor, Kagan, and Jackson — dissented, expressing concern about the uncertainty the order creates for election administrators and voters. Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson warned in her dissent that the decision "needlessly injects chaos and uncertainty into the upcoming midterm elections."

The order directs the Department of Homeland Security to develop lists to help states identify non-citizens on voter rolls and instructs the Postal Service to update its system for mailing absentee ballots. A new Postal Service rule would require specific envelope formatting and force states to use an electronic system to identify mail voters. States that do not comply would see their ballots undelivered.

Muller said it is unlikely the rule takes effect for the 2026 election. "It's redesigning absentee ballots in a number of states, again, in a matter of days," he noted, pointing to the significant logistical hurdles. "My instinct is that the rule won't take effect for the 2026 election," he added, though he acknowledged intense litigation lies ahead.

Mail voting remains widely used across the country, with between a quarter and a third of Americans casting ballots by mail. The president himself votes by mail. Muller advised voters that nothing changes for them at this moment, but urged them to stay in contact with their local election office and mail ballots promptly if delays occur. Early in-person voting remains an option for those concerned about mail disruptions.

The legal fight now moves forward with initial ballots scheduled to be sent to North Carolina's overseas and military voters on September 4. A separate injunction barring the Postal Service from making changes remains in effect, though the administration has filed a motion to lift it.