Sweden election: centre-left edges ahead as far-right loses ground

Sweden's centre-left opposition appeared poised to take power after a closely fought election that weakened the influence of the far-right and signalled a possible end to the country's rightward political shift.

Preliminary results on Monday projected a three-seat lead for the centre-left bloc over the right-wing ruling alliance led by Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson. The election authority said left-leaning parties backing Social Democrat leader Magdalena Andersson were on track for 176 seats in the 349-seat parliament, while the governing bloc was seen winning 173.

"If this result remains valid, Sweden will get a new government," Andersson told supporters on Sunday night.

The outcome, if confirmed, would buck a Europe-wide trend of gains for the right. It was driven largely by losses for the far-right Sweden Democrats, which had helped push the once-liberal nation toward some of Europe's strictest migration rules. Projections showed the party losing an estimated 11 seats — its first decline in a parliamentary election.

Analysts said the reversal was more likely due to tactical voting than a sign that the far-right had peaked across the continent. Party officials attributed the setback partly to its role in supporting the government from outside the cabinet and to lingering voter unease about its past. The party says it has expelled extremists and apologised for its history.

"There is a group of voters that may like many of our policies but emotionally have a hard time accepting us," said Sweden Democrat lawmaker Richard Jomshof.

Immigration remains a central issue. Andersson's Social Democrats now back a significantly more restrictive approach than during the refugee crises of the 2010s. The current government abolished permanent residency for refugees, tightened welfare and stepped up expulsions, bringing asylum numbers to a 40-year low. Analysts expect a centre-left administration to take a softer line but not to restore the open-door policies of past decades.

"I believe the broader shift towards a stricter Swedish migration policy is, for the most part, here to stay," said Niklas Bohlin, a political scientist at Mid-Sweden University.

A centre-left government would be expected to maintain Sweden's pro-Western and pro-Ukraine stance.

With 353 election districts still to be counted and overseas votes not due until Wednesday, party leaders have been cautious about claiming victory or conceding defeat. In 2022, exit polls initially gave the centre-left a narrow win that proved premature, and Kristersson showed no sign of conceding after Sunday's vote. The blocs were separated by around 0.4% of votes on Monday morning — about 29,000 votes out of 6.4 million counted.

Andersson has yet to explain how she would unite a divided centre-left behind her. Parliament speaker Andreas Norlen told Swedish television that forming a government "could very well be a complicated process." Andersson has promised more welfare spending, a fairer tax system and a focus on social cohesion, but the Greens and Left parties want higher taxes on the wealthy, while the Centre Party opposes a billionaires' tax and refuses to sit in government with the Left. Andersson needs both parties' support.