Sweden's centre-left holds slim poll lead as Sunday vote nears

Sweden's centre-left opposition holds a narrow lead over the ruling right-wing bloc ahead of Sunday's parliamentary election, according to a survey published on Friday, suggesting voters may turn away from the government's reliance on the far-right Sweden Democrats.

A September 2-10 poll of 5,642 voters by the Indikator Opinion firm put the four left-leaning parties at a combined 50.8% support, enough for an estimated 180 seats. The governing coalition and its Sweden Democrats backers stood at 47.6%, or 169 seats.

The result points to Social Democrats leader Magdalena Andersson becoming prime minister again after four years in opposition, replacing Ulf Kristersson of the centre-right Moderates. Andersson's bloc has led in every poll published this year, though its margin has narrowed in recent weeks.

Kristersson has presided over a shift away from Sweden's traditional liberalism, introducing some of Europe's toughest immigration policies. He has said that if his bloc wins, the Sweden Democrats — which has apologised for past links with neo-Nazism — would enter government for the first time.

The centre-left remains divided over which parties would join a Social Democrats-led government. The Centre Party and the Left Party have each ruled out taking part if the other is included, and they differ on policies ranging from a tax on billionaires to the construction of new nuclear reactors. That could mean lengthy negotiations and a minority government comprising only some opposition parties if the left prevails.

Both blocs support Ukraine against Russia's invasion, back military rearmament at home and favour relief for households facing a rising cost of living. The campaign has touched on the welfare state, immigration and crime, but experts say no single issue has dominated.

"Nothing has really stuck, it's been sort of unsatisfactory in that sense," said Nicholas Aylott, an associate professor at Sodertorn University. He said the centre-left looked set to win, though by a smaller margin than in early-summer polls. "It would be somewhat sensational if the governing parties were to make up the gap... So I probably don't think it's going to happen, but you never know," he added.

The Social Democrats remain Sweden's largest party with 28.6% support, down 1.7 percentage points from the 2022 election. The anti-immigration Sweden Democrats are still the governing bloc's biggest group at 18.3%, a fall of 2.2 points since 2022. The party has been propping up the ruling coalition without holding cabinet posts.