Sweden Votes as NATO's Newest Member Weighs Government Formation

Sweden goes to the polls on Sunday in an election that will decide whether Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson's conservative-led government stays in office or the center-left Social Democrats return to power. More than 8 million of the country's roughly 10.6 million residents are eligible to vote for the 349-seat Riksdag in Stockholm, which will then choose the next prime minister.

Kristersson has governed since 2022 at the head of a three-party center-right coalition that depends on outside support from the Sweden Democrats for a parliamentary majority. The anti-immigration party, which has far-right roots but has moved toward the mainstream, could receive Cabinet posts this time if the right is re-elected. Kristersson said in April that his Moderates would bring the Sweden Democrats into government if the right secures a majority, while he would remain prime minister even if the Sweden Democrats emerge as the stronger party.

His challenger is Magdalena Andersson, who led the Social Democrats and served as prime minister from 2021 until her defeat in the last election. The party has more often than not led Swedish governments since World War II. Andersson has warned against giving the Sweden Democrats control of ministries such as defense or foreign affairs.

The campaign has been fragmented, with policy debates over issues such as health care organization overshadowed by questions about which parties can form a government. "Crime has come down, inflation has come down. So these topics are not really what people discuss," said Zeth Isaksson, a sociologist studying electoral behavior at Stockholm University. "People discuss who is going to be in government, and that's what the election is about."

Two blocs dominate: four parties on the right and four on the left. The central question is not which party wins the most votes but which side can assemble a majority. Individual parties need at least 4% of the vote to enter parliament. Nicholas Aylott, associate professor of political science at Södertörn University, said it would be a sensation if the opposition, which has led opinion polls for most of the past four years, failed to win a majority. He added that the Social Democrats' defensive campaign may have cost them support, while the right's message of unity may have had some effect.

The Sweden Democrats, founded in the 1980s by people active in right-wing extremist groups including neo-Nazis, took 20.5% of the vote in 2022 to become the largest party on the right. Under Jimmie Åkesson, who has led the party since 2005, they have softened their rhetoric and expelled openly racist members. Aylott noted apprehension about the prospect of Sweden Democrat ministers, a concern the Social Democrats have sought to exploit. Isaksson suggested the party may have "peaked to some extent," even as populist right parties gain ground elsewhere in Europe.

Russia and Ukraine have not been central campaign issues. Aylott said there is near-complete consensus in Sweden on supporting Ukraine and deep antipathy toward Russia, which reduces Moscow's incentive to interfere. Sweden's Psychological Defense Agency said the election is not Russia's top priority. Just over a week before the vote, Expo magazine reported that a civil servant working in parliament for the Sweden Democrats had spread Russian state narratives on social networks. She is the partner of Gustav Gellerbrant, head of the party's coordination office with the government.