Texas Republicans Face Latino Backlash as Redistricting Bet Sours

South Texas stretches along long highways past pump jacks, mesquite trees and gas stations where drivers say fuel prices have climbed too high. The region swung strongly toward Donald Trump in 2024, but interviews with more than 30 Latino voters across a 360-mile route from San Antonio's outskirts to McAllen suggest that support may be shifting again.

Many of those voters say Trump had an opportunity to bring down prices and did not deliver. Disappointment with his economic record and his immigration enforcement is rising, exposing cracks in what Republican officials had hoped was a lasting realignment among Latino Americans. Nationwide, Trump's approval rating has dropped to 32%, its lowest level since he returned to office.

That uncertainty complicates matters for Texas Republicans, who redrew congressional maps last year on the assumption that the Latino voters who helped power Trump's 2024 victory would stay with the party. Analysts note the group is historically volatile and could swing back to Democrats in 2026, as it has in other off-year and special elections.

Texas Republicans made several districts more favorable to their candidates based on Trump's 2024 performance, the strongest showing by a Republican presidential candidate among Latino voters this century. Rather than dilute Latino voting power, many reconfigured districts remained heavily Latino, including the 15th and 35th Congressional Districts. In the 15th, Latinos make up 74.5% of the citizen voting-age population; in the 35th, 51.6%. Both have nonetheless become more competitive, with the 15th rated a toss-up by one forecaster and lean Republican by another.

An August 2026 Texas Southern University poll found Democratic congressional candidates leading in three South Texas districts, including the 15th. Interviews with nearly 50 analysts, activists, pollsters and voters support the view that some Trump-supporting Latinos in the region are open to Democrats.

Saúl Guajardo, 53, of McAllen, voted for Trump three times but now describes himself as more open than ever to voting Democratic. He and his wife Terrie say they live paycheck to paycheck despite steady incomes, with gasoline a major burden — the average price in the McAllen area was $4.09 a gallon as of September 22. Terrie said Trump's immigration crackdown was too harsh for people who simply want to work in the United States, and has permanently separated some families.

A September poll of 1,000 Latinos in Texas found that 18% of those who voted for Trump no longer support him, and nearly two-thirds said they would be less likely to back candidates who support Trump's immigration policies. For both parties, the shifts illustrate the promise and peril of Latino voters, whose support often depends less on party loyalty than on whether they believe officials will improve their economic circumstances.

Republicans reject the idea that Latino voters are drifting away. The National Republican Congressional Committee's national Hispanic press secretary said Democrats spent years responding to declining Hispanic support with denial, excuses and condescension rather than addressing the concerns that drew working-class voters to the GOP.

The risk of a redistricting backfire is clearest in the 15th District, where the reconfigured map would have given Trump an 18-point win in 2024, compared with a two-point margin in 2020 and a 14-point loss in 2016. Incumbent Republican Monica De La Cruz faces Democratic singer Bobby Pulido, whose fame predates his political career. His hit "Desvelado" has nearly 610 million Spotify streams and he has won two Latin Grammy Awards. A late August Texas Southern University poll had Pulido leading De La Cruz by five points.

Pulido, who campaigns in a cowboy hat and boots and makes surprise appearances at quinceañeras, said Democrats lost ground with Latino voters because they failed to address working families' economic concerns, though he added that both parties often misread the electorate. He said Latino voters do not want handouts but want the opportunity to work and provide for their families. De La Cruz's campaign did not respond to requests for comment.

Ramon Barrera, 36, known as "The Texas Tea Guy" on social media, voted for Trump for the first time in 2024 but said the term has been a disappointment, opening the door for a shift.