Thailand's Q2 GDP Grows 1.9%, Beating Forecasts

Thailand's economy expanded 1.9% in the second quarter of 2026 compared with the same period a year earlier, according to official data released on Monday. The figure surpassed the 1.7% median forecast from a poll of analysts.

On a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, Southeast Asia's second-largest economy contracted 0.2% in the April-June period. This was a smaller decline than the 0.6% contraction that analysts had predicted.

Growth in the January-March quarter was revised to 2.8% year-on-year and 0.6% quarter-on-quarter.

The National Economic and Social Development Council now projects full-year 2026 growth of 2.0% to 2.5%, narrowing its previous range of 1.5% to 2.5%.

The economy grew 2.4% last year but has trailed regional peers since the COVID-19 pandemic. High household debt has continued to restrain consumer spending.

The agency raised its export growth forecast for the year to 15.1%, up from an earlier projection of 9.6%. Exports remain a key driver of the Thai economy.

Weak consumption, weighed down by elevated household debt and living costs, dampened activity in the second quarter. In June, the government launched a 176 billion baht ($5.3 billion) consumer subsidy scheme as part of a broader 400 billion baht borrowing plan aimed at mitigating higher oil prices and easing cost-of-living pressures.

Last month, the finance ministry lifted its 2026 growth forecast to 2.5% from 1.6%, citing stronger exports, domestic demand, and government support measures.

The central bank kept its key interest rate unchanged at 1.00% in June. Governor Vitai Ratanakorn has indicated there is no immediate need to raise rates. The next monetary policy review is scheduled for August 26.

Thailand's headline inflation eased to 1.95% in July, within the central bank's target range of 1% to 3%.