Thailand's Sugar Output Set to Drop 12.5% as Drought and Costs Bite
Thai sugar production is forecast to fall 12.5% to 10.5 million metric tons in the 2026/27 season, hit by drought, high input costs and a shift to cassava.
Thailand's sugar production is expected to decline by 12.5% to 10.5 million metric tons in the 2026/27 season, according to an industry official, as drought, rising input costs and crop switching weigh on the world's second-largest sugar exporter after Brazil.
Sugarcane output is projected to fall 9.5% to about 95 million tons, down from 105 million tons in the previous season, said Thawat Hamarn, director of strategy and planning at the Office of the Cane and Sugar Board. The 2026/27 harvest is expected to run from December through April.
The forecast decline reflects a combination of factors. Farmers have faced higher fertiliser costs, while cane prices have not been attractive enough, prompting some growers to switch to more profitable crops such as cassava, said Naradhip Anantasuk, manager of the Thai Sugarcane Planters Federation.
Global sugar prices have risen amid expectations that drought could curb production in Thailand, India and Brazil, Naradhip noted. However, he said prices would need to reach around 21 to 22 cents per pound for farmers to cover their costs, compared with current levels of around 18 to 19 cents.
The pressure is visible at the local level. In Khon Kaen, a province in northeastern Thailand about 450 kilometres from Bangkok, cane production could fall to 1.8 million tons, compared with 5.86 million tons last season, according to a local official.
"Inconsistent rainfall, farmers' debt burdens and disease outbreaks would lead to lower cane production," said Chairat Kittivarapol, an official with a sugarcane growers' association in the province.