Tigray Forces Seize Airports, Clash With Federal Troops as Peace Deal Frays
Tigrayan forces seized three airports and clashed with federal troops, shattering a peace deal and raising fears of a wider Horn of Africa conflict.
Forces in northern Ethiopia's Tigray region seized control of three airports and engaged federal troops in multiple locations on Wednesday, in what appears to be the opening of a major offensive after months of mounting tension.
The fighting breaks a peace agreement that had ended the 2020-2022 war between the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) and federal forces. That conflict is estimated to have killed hundreds of thousands of people.
The Pretoria Agreement has been under growing strain, with both sides accusing each other of violations. The peace process began to erode after divisions emerged within the TPLF, when a hardline faction took control of the region and removed an interim administration.
More recently, the TPLF formed an alliance with six other armed groups from across Ethiopia, including former wartime adversaries, with the stated aim of overthrowing Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government. It remains unclear how many members of the alliance took part in Wednesday's clashes, but Ethiopia is home to numerous heavily armed regional forces.
Abiy's government has accused Eritrea of providing financial backing to alliance members, allegations Asmara has denied.
Eritrea's role under scrutiny
Attention now turns to Asmara, whose relationship with Addis Ababa has been turbulent since Eritrea's independence in 1993. After taking office, Abiy won the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize for ending two decades of hostility between the two countries. When civil war broke out the following year, Eritrean forces backed Ethiopia's federal army.
Ties have since deteriorated, particularly after the Pretoria agreement, to which Eritrea was not a party despite having fought in the war.
Red Sea access remains another point of friction. Ethiopia lost its coastline when Eritrea broke away and has repeatedly argued that restoring access to the sea, specifically the port of Assab, is vital to its long-term security and economic development. Asmara has said it fears Addis Ababa will try to seize Assab by force.
Earlier this month, the United States lifted sanctions on Eritrean Defense Forces and other entities. The impact on any conflict in Ethiopia is unclear, but the move is seen as a nod to Eritrea's strategic coastline opposite Saudi Arabia and a warning to Ethiopia against going to war with Asmara.
Regional risks
Diplomats warn that a renewed Tigray war would not remain a largely isolated Ethiopian conflict. It would unfold as the Horn of Africa faces its most volatile security environment in years, with war in Sudan, persistent instability in Somalia, tensions over the Nile, and Middle East geopolitics spilling into the region.
Ethiopia has been accused of backing Sudan's Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which is fighting the Sudanese army in one of the world's deadliest conflicts. Ethiopia denies the support, which would align with its close relationship with the United Arab Emirates, the most active Gulf power in the region. UN experts say the UAE is also backing the RSF, accusations the UAE has denied.
Eritrea, meanwhile, is closer to Sudan and has cultivated relatively close ties with Egypt, a long-time rival of Ethiopia. Both Egypt and Sudan view Ethiopia's Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, built on a Nile tributary, as a serious threat to their water supplies.