Trump Weighs Diesel Export Ban as Fuel Prices Squeeze US Consumers

Rising fuel costs are intensifying pressure on US President Donald Trump to restrict diesel exports before November's midterm elections, even as senior officials question whether such a move would ease the burden on American consumers.

Diesel has climbed to a record $6.50 a gallon, while gasoline remains elevated at nearly $4.50 a gallon. The surge is squeezing trucking, farming, manufacturing and other sectors that depend on the fuel to move goods. Trump said on Tuesday he backed the idea of a diesel export ban, a step some Republican lawmakers from agricultural states have urged. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the administration was examining whether a full or partial ban would work.

However, Energy Secretary Chris Wright and Interior Secretary Doug Burgum have expressed doubts in recent weeks about whether such a measure would achieve its goal. The debate comes as the president's poll numbers sink to new lows, making fuel costs a growing political liability.

The current crunch is largely conflict-driven. The Middle East and Russia once accounted for roughly a fifth of global seaborne diesel exports. The Iran war and disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have removed a sizeable share of global refining capacity and diesel supplies. The squeeze deepened in July when Russia, traditionally a top diesel exporter, halted shipments after months of Ukrainian drone attacks crippled large parts of its refining sector. Half of Russia's six largest diesel-producing refineries significantly cut back or completely halted output in September due to drone damage.

The administration has already tried several measures with limited success. In March, Washington issued a waiver to the century-old Jones Act, which requires cargo shipped between US ports to travel on US-built, US-owned, US-flagged and largely US-crewed vessels. The waiver, set to expire on November 15, was intended to help Gulf Coast refiners supply diesel to the East and West coasts, but results have been negligible. Trump has also encouraged Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to halt strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, with little progress.

The US has emerged as one of the few suppliers able to fill the gap left by lost Middle Eastern and Russian fuel, benefiting from large margins. Total US oil exports have surged by over 20% since March compared with the 2025 average, reaching 9 million barrels per day, according to Kpler. But that role has come at a cost: US diesel inventories have fallen to their lowest level for this time of year in more than four decades and stand about 13% below last year's levels. The decline is especially concerning because stockpiles would normally be building ahead of autumn refinery maintenance and the winter heating season.

At first glance, an export ban appears compelling. US refiners produced almost 5 million bpd of diesel last year, while domestic consumption was 3.9 million bpd. But that apparent surplus is precisely why a ban would backfire, analysts argue. Modern refining systems are designed to serve domestic and international markets simultaneously, with Gulf Coast refiners optimising operations based on global price signals. An export ban would initially direct more fuel into domestic markets, temporarily depressing prices. Once inventories filled, however, refiners would have little choice but to reduce processing rates because they could no longer sell surplus diesel abroad. The result would be lower production of diesel, gasoline, jet fuel and other products.

Restricting exports could also undermine America's reputation as a reliable energy supplier and strain relations with allies and customers in Europe and Asia that have become increasingly dependent on US fuel. Trump has the authority to restrict exports temporarily under emergency powers, and he would not be the first president to intervene in energy markets. The US prohibited crude oil exports for four decades after the 1973 oil crisis, and former President Joe Biden's administration considered restricting diesel exports in 2022 after Russia's invasion of Ukraine roiled fuel markets. Whether the current administration can withstand the political pressure to impose a ban remains uncertain.