Trump turns to dual economic and military pressure to squeeze Iran

Facing an Iranian leadership that has not bowed under months of military pressure, the Trump administration is now combining economic isolation with the threat of further escalation. The strategy, announced last week as "Operation Economic Outcast," aims to sever Iran's remaining trade ties, while recent strikes have drawn retaliatory moves from Tehran, raising fears of a wider regional conflict.

Despite the renewed push, the administration's campaign has yet to break Iran's resolve. The combination of existing sanctions and an intermittent bombing campaign has not forced a change in Tehran's stance, leaving Washington struggling to find an exit from a conflict now in its seventh month. Rising energy prices, global economic strain, and sliding approval ratings on the war's handling have added to the pressure ahead of November's midterm elections.

President Donald Trump said Wednesday he did not expect the conflict to last "much longer," but dismissed suggestions that high gasoline prices or the war's unpopularity would hurt Republican candidates. "I'm not affected by the election," he told reporters. "I'm not running. But my party is running, and I'm going to help my party."

A regional diplomat briefed on the matter said the impasse reflects domestic priorities on both sides — the U.S. midterms for Trump and internal crises in Iran. The diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity, said negotiations, including those mediated by Oman or direct U.S.-Iran talks, would not progress without addressing the original catalyst of the war: Israel. The diplomat also expressed skepticism about the new sanctions plan, saying the threats need more explanation than Washington has provided.

The economic campaign has so far had limited effect. Only one branch of an Egyptian bank in the UAE has been targeted. Experts say real pressure requires cutting off Iran's main trading partners — China, India, and Russia — but Trump is reluctant to target China, especially with President Xi Jinping's visit planned for later this month.

Control over the Strait of Hormuz remains a key flashpoint. The waterway, through which a fifth of the world's oil once flowed, is now operating far below pre-war levels. Ship transits last week were 102, and 126 the week before, compared with 130 or more per day before the conflict, according to Lloyd's List Intelligence. Iran's vetting regime near its coast has deterred many vessels.

White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said Thursday that the strait is open and mines have been cleared, and that the naval blockade remains in force. She said "Operation Economic Outcast" is aimed at severing every remaining economic lifeline for the regime.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the price Iran will pay will be primarily economic, but the U.S. reserves the right to take military action when necessary. Vice President JD Vance said major combat operations are not currently ongoing, but the administration would respond to any hostile Iranian action.

Iran's leadership shows signs of division between moderates open to negotiation and hardliners favoring confrontation. President Masoud Pezeshkian remains a prominent voice for a diplomatic solution, but hardliners appear to have the upper hand, and Tehran continues to strike at U.S. interests and allies in the region.

Analysts see a prolonged battle of endurance. "This kind of a hybrid approach — the combination of military force, blockade and economic pressure — is the only option that seems to be available to the United States at this moment," said Hamidreza Azizi of the International Crisis Group. He added that it is now "more than ever, a battle of endurance between the two sides."

Amr Hamzawy of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace pointed to two reasons for the deteriorating situation: neither side is satisfied with the outcome, and both are concerned about domestic perceptions. The Trump administration fears being seen as failing to end a military campaign, while Iran's Revolutionary Guard is wary of appearing to submit to sanctions without a response.