Strait of Hormuz Deal Tests Trump's Willingness to Compromise

Negotiations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping have reached a critical juncture, with a potential deal requiring President Donald Trump to accept a compromise that would give Iran a measure of control over the vital waterway. Such a concession would be a significant departure for a president who has consistently framed the conflict in terms of victory and defeat.

"He divides the world into winners and losers, and this would make him a loser," said Eliot Cohen, a former State Department counselor under George W. Bush. "And the image of being a loser, I think, would be intolerable for him."

The core dispute centers on the strait, through which 20% of the world's oil typically flows. While both sides indicate a deal is close, the administration has ruled out any arrangement that would cement Iran's control over the waterway, including the levying of fees. Iran, however, insists on some form of oversight, maintaining the strait will not revert to its pre-war status as an open international waterway. Despite thousands of U.S. strikes, Iran retains the ability to threaten vessels with drones and missiles, effectively holding a chokehold over commercial shipping.

David Schenker, a former State Department official in the first Trump administration, suggests the mounting economic pressure may push the president toward a compromise, despite its potential global implications. "There will be a lot of spin both ways, but my guess is that the president has tipped his hand as to the urgency for him of resolving the crisis," said Schenker, now a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. "This is a concession he may very well be willing to make."

Trump has publicly conceded little regarding the war's toll. He has dismissed reports of sagging poll numbers and a sluggish economy, and has pushed back on claims of dwindling U.S. weapons stockpiles. In a social media post, he asserted the military has "massive amounts" of weapons and threatened jail time for those leaking information on inventories. This followed a Washington Post report detailing his frustration with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth over shrinking supplies of advanced weaponry.

A senior administration official described the Cabinet discussion on Iran as "robust and healthy," denying any "knock-down, drag-out fight." Experts, however, point to reports from the Center for Strategic and International Studies indicating shortages of key munitions like advanced missile interceptors.

Trump later acknowledged to reporters that "we need more all the time," claiming some munitions are in "virtually unlimited supply" while others are "a little bit tighter." He insisted the U.S. is "in great shape" and could tap into global stockpiles if needed. Hegseth has been on Capitol Hill this week, lobbying Republican senators for billions in additional Pentagon spending.

Sen. Mark Kelly, an Arizona Democrat and former Navy pilot, criticized the war's lack of a clear strategy, arguing the weapons shortfall is a "self-inflicted problem." "If you knew what the goal is, maybe the target list would have been 500 targets," he said.

Despite the president's claims of strong poll numbers, a late July poll found that about two-thirds of U.S. adults believe the war with Iran has not been worthwhile. While Trump points to record employment numbers, job growth has slowed considerably in his second term.

The president also maintains the strait is "sort of open right now," pointing to a Navy blockade of Iranian ports. However, he acknowledged the ongoing threat: "They can always shoot something, they always have something or drop a mine." Maritime data from Lloyd's List Intelligence shows at least two ships were hit in the strait last week, with several others reporting near misses. While vessel traffic increased to 84 transits last week from 45 the week before, it remains far below the pre-crisis average of over 700.

U.S. and Iranian officials say they are close to an agreement. Reports suggest a temporary solution would allow ships to enter the Persian Gulf via an Iranian-controlled route and exit through an Omani-controlled one. The administration has repeatedly stated its opposition to any arrangement involving Iranian fees. A U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said any temporary routes would have no tolls or charges, and that Trump's preferred choice is diplomacy, asserting he "holds all the cards."