Trump's Iran War Draws 'Forever War' Comparisons as 9/11 Anniversary Nears

When Donald Trump campaigned for a second term, he cast himself as a "president of peace" who would keep the United States out of foreign wars. A quarter-century after the September 11, 2001 attacks, he is now embroiled in a conflict of his own making that analysts say risks becoming his version of a "forever war."

With the 9/11 anniversary approaching, Trump's war against Iran is drawing comparisons in foreign policy circles to the long, divisive campaigns in Afghanistan and Iraq. Questions are mounting over whether Washington has again failed to absorb the lessons of those conflicts or to chart a clear exit.

"Trump has broken an important post-Iraq and Afghanistan constraint in Washington against launching another major, open-ended war in the Middle East," said Sina Toossi of the Center for International Policy, a Washington think tank. He warned that the conflict could leave Trump's successor inheriting an entrenched U.S.-Iran confrontation.

Administration officials reject the parallel. Unlike Iraq and Afghanistan, where the U.S. removed hostile governments, deployed thousands of ground troops and suffered far higher casualties, the Iran campaign relies mainly on air and naval power. Those operations have damaged Iran militarily and economically but have not defeated it or triggered the popular overthrow Trump initially urged.

After six months, the United States is mired in a battle of attrition punctuated by bursts of hostilities — exemplified by this week's exchange of attacks on oil tankers — while Trump tries to tighten the economic noose around Tehran. Analysts expect the war to drag on well past November's midterm elections, when voter opposition could threaten Republican control of Congress.

Much like the earlier conflicts, there is no obvious exit even as economic costs weigh on U.S. consumers. Tehran's disruption of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz has pushed U.S. gasoline prices higher. The war has weakened Trump's approval ratings and undermined Washington's international standing — repercussions also felt during the Iraq and Afghan wars.

White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said Trump alone had "possessed the courage" to confront Iran over its nuclear program, that he had achieved all of his objectives, and that Iran's economy was being crippled by stepped-up sanctions and a U.S. maritime blockade. She did not respond directly to questions on how the Iran conflict fits into America's legacy of post-9/11 wars.

Analysts say Trump has failed to heed the central lessons of the post-9/11 era, which began after al Qaeda militants crashed planes into New York's World Trade Center and the Pentagon, killing nearly 3,000 people. Those attacks led to decades of conflict, starting with the invasion of Afghanistan and followed by the 2003 invasion of Iraq based on faulty intelligence about weapons of mass destruction. The twin wars overstretched the U.S. military and destabilized the Middle East.

The resulting public backlash helped fuel Trump's rise a decade ago, and he won a second term in 2024 vowing to avoid military adventurism. But analysts say Trump and his aides, like the Bush administration before them, miscalculated Iran's resiliency and its ability to throttle a fifth of the world's energy shipments.

Trump's "Operation Epic Fury," launched alongside Israel on February 28, was not precipitated by a 9/11-type national trauma but was deemed by critics to be a war of choice. Experts have disputed Trump's claims that Tehran's nuclear program posed an imminent threat to the U.S.

Iran may be taking a page from Afghanistan's Taliban, who returned to power five years ago after a chaotic U.S. withdrawal, demonstrating that a determined foe can outlast Washington's superior firepower while domestic pressure erodes its resolve.

The conflict has also illustrated the cost of going to war with few allies on board. Bush secured significant international support before launching his Iraq and Afghan campaigns, though that backing waned over time. By contrast, Trump attacked Iran with little prior consultation or explanation and has found European and Asian leaders mostly resistant to his demands for assistance. Relations with Trump had already been strained by his threat to seize Greenland, his questioning of NATO's utility, his reduction of weapons supplies to Ukraine and his sweeping tariffs on trade partners.

The conflict has mirrored the Iraq invasion in terms of regional spillover that seemed to catch Washington off-guard, in this case Tehran's retaliation against U.S. Gulf allies. With Iran's neighbors quietly seeking to de-escalate a conflict they never wanted, a Gulf official lamented that the administration might be repeating some of the errors of the post-9/11 wars.

"What was the (U.S.) strategy here?" asked the official, speaking on condition of anonymity. Saudi analyst Aziz Alghashian described "a sense of limitation and helplessness in the Gulf about the wars that are taking place due to the whims of the United States."

While the Iraq and Afghan wars ended as unpopular conflicts, both started with solid support at home. Trump's war enjoyed no such honeymoon. Most Americans were against it from the outset, and he has even drawn criticism from prominent figures associated with his "America First" movement.

Trump had initially expected to replicate his quick win from a January 3 raid that captured Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro. But the Iran campaign has instead hardened into an uneasy stalemate that has not achieved most of Trump's shifting objectives, including shutting down its nuclear program, and has depleted the Pentagon's missile stockpiles.

Still, Trump is not without defenders. Mark Dubowitz, head of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, an anti-Iran think tank in Washington, denied Trump had plunged the U.S. into an endless war and insisted he had scored successes that would eventually bring victory.

"It's been a 47-year war waged by the Islamic Republic against America," Dubowitz said. "And now we've struck back."