Trump Casts Midterms as Referendum on Himself, but Some Loyalists Have Doubts

President Donald Trump used the Republican Party's first-ever midterm convention in Dallas this week to urge voters to treat November's elections as a referendum on his presidency, asking them to "pretend that I'm on the ballot." The two-day gathering was intended to launch a campaign built around Trump, aimed at firing up the party's base and repeating the turnout that carried him to victory in 2016 and 2024.

Yet conversations with Republicans at the convention revealed unease about that approach. Even some strong Trump supporters questioned whether a president facing voter anxiety over inflation and the Iran war is the party's strongest voice in competitive races. Of 15 Republicans interviewed — among the party's most engaged supporters, donors and activists — five doubted Trump could effectively reach the independents Republicans need to keep control of Congress. The skepticism was striking at an event that drew Trump's most committed backers and echoed concerns voiced by some Republican lawmakers in tight districts.

"He's definitely energizing the base and I think the convention was a good idea, but I'm not entirely sure if this pitch is going to work for everybody," said Len Heritage, a Republican donor from Washington state who helped fund the convention. Heritage said he left Wednesday night's speech with a greater appreciation for Trump but remained torn on whether he is the party's best messenger. "A part of me does, but a part of me is very cautious," he said.

Trump said little in his address about the cost of living, the top concern for many voters, which has helped push his approval ratings to historic lows. He claimed food prices were falling rapidly, despite government data showing otherwise, and promised every American adult a $5,000 "Trump dividend" if Republicans keep Congress, without explaining how it would be funded.

The arena floor was full when Trump spoke, but much of the upper deck and hundreds of side seats in the 21,000-seat American Airlines Center sat empty — undercutting the convention's aim of projecting political strength. Trump, long focused on crowd size, repeatedly described the arena as packed.

Still, 10 of the 15 Republicans interviewed said putting Trump at the center was the party's best strategy, arguing his ability to motivate Republican voters outweighed the risks of his broader unpopularity. Most expressed confidence he could win over voters beyond his core supporters.

Trump's standing remains far stronger among Republicans than among the wider electorate. His overall approval stood at 33% in a poll conducted August 28-31, the lowest of his presidency. Among Republicans it slipped from 91% at the start of his term to 82%, while among independents it fell from 39% to 22%. Polls also suggest Democrats enter the midterms with a more energized base.

Brian Darling, a Republican strategist and former Senate aide, said Trump's most devoted voters can be hard to mobilize without him on the ballot. Building the campaign around Trump was "obviously a risky strategy," he said, "but I do think that it's better than the alternative." Democrats have welcomed the calculation, arguing Trump's plea plays into their effort to make the election a referendum on his handling of the economy and the Iran war.

Christine Gardner, a retired intellectual property lawyer from Texas, said any downside from Trump's prominence could be offset by what she sees as Democrats' leftward shift, including the rise of candidates backed by the Democratic Socialists of America. "I think the thing that's going to help us more than he could possibly hurt us is those DSAs, because the independents are gonna go, 'Wait a minute, that's a little bit way too far,'" she said. Convention speakers sought to cast Democrats as dangerous extremists who would threaten Americans' way of life.

That message may be harder to sell in close races, where Republicans cannot assume fears about Democrats will outweigh concerns about Trump. Some of the party's most vulnerable candidates stayed away from Dallas, including Representative Tom Barrett of Michigan, Senator Dan Sullivan of Alaska and Senator Susan Collins of Maine. Barrett's campaign said he remained home because "his voters are in his district."

Rick Williams, a field representative for a Republican lawmaker in Tennessee, said he was unsure whether Trump's pitch would resonate with independents, but argued that was not the convention's main purpose. "He's the only messenger we have," Williams said. "I think the message is to the Trumper that voted two years ago. 'Hey, you've got to go back.'"

For some attendees, the potential to energize Trump's base was enough to justify the gamble. Talako Kostini, a 59-year-old Republican from South Texas, said centering the effort on Trump carried risks, but breaking with the traditional midterm playbook was worth trying. "Why keep on doing things the old way? They don't work," he said. "So here we go. Let's just try something new."