Trump Bets on Himself as Midterms Become a Referendum on His Presidency
Trump is centering the midterm campaign on himself, urging voters to act as if he is on the ballot, even as his approval ratings lag.
Donald Trump is once again casting himself as the indispensable figure in American politics, telling Republicans that this year's midterm elections amount to a verdict on his presidency. Speaking on the closing night of the party's midterm convention, he said he would keep his remarks brief but instead spoke for about half an hour, revisiting themes from a nearly two-hour address the night before and remaining on stage as balloons fell and an opera singer performed.
"You've got to get out and vote, and you're going to pretend I'm on the ballot. Because in a way, I'm on the ballot," he told the crowd, according to the wire account.
The approach carries both promise and risk. No Republican since Ronald Reagan has energized the party's base and drawn a broader coalition the way Trump does, but that pull has largely materialized when his own name is on the ballot. In the 2018 midterms, Republicans lost 40 House seats. In 2022, several of his high-profile picks, including Doug Mastriano in Pennsylvania's governor's race, were defeated.
Trump acknowledged the historical pattern that costs a president's party in midterms, calling it something "deep down and psychological" with "no reason for it."
His strategy relies on familiar themes: portraying opponents in dire terms, emphasizing culture-war issues such as those involving transgender people, and promoting a pledge to send every American adult $5,000 if Republicans hold the House and Senate — a proposal that faces political and financial obstacles but drew attention. He also points to his record on immigration, Iran and the economy, and to renovations in Washington including a new White House ballroom he will enjoy only briefly before his term ends.
The pitch faces headwinds. A July poll found about one-third of U.S. adults approve of his job performance, down slightly from June and below the 42% approval recorded when he took office. Majorities disapprove of his handling of the economy and immigration, issues central to his 2024 victory. A Quinnipiac University poll released Thursday found 46% of registered voters said the Democratic Party better understands people's concerns, compared with 35% for the Republican Party.
Trump has pledged to campaign for Republicans in competitive races in the coming weeks, though some candidates may prefer distance from him. As the next presidential race takes shape, loyalty to Trump remains a key currency. Vice President JD Vance, a possible 2028 contender, called him the "toughest S.O.B. in American politics," drawing loud applause. Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, who declined to endorse Trump at the 2016 convention, offered praise on Thursday while marking the 25th anniversary of the Sept. 11 attacks, noting how unpredictable history can be.
"Who could have predicted that the extraordinary Donald Trump would be president?" Cruz said.