Trump's 'best poverty numbers' claim: official rate at record low, but context matters
Trump says the US has the lowest poverty in history. The official rate is a record low, but a broader measure and the survey's timing complicate the claim.
President Donald Trump has been touting the country's poverty figures, telling audiences that the United States now has "the best poverty numbers in history" — meaning the lowest. His remarks, made Sunday and repeated Monday, are partly supported by the Census Bureau's latest annual poverty report, released earlier this month.
That report put the official poverty rate at 10.2% in 2025, the lowest since the agency began tracking the measure in 1959. But the figure comes with important caveats.
A second, broader measure
The Census Bureau also calculates the supplemental poverty measure, or SPM, which experts widely regard as more comprehensive. Unlike the official rate, the SPM factors in non-cash benefits such as food aid and Medicaid, as well as household expenses including housing and medical costs.
In 2025, the SPM stood at 13.1% — far above its all-time low of 7.7%, reached in 2021 under former President Joe Biden. The SPM has been tracked since 2009 and is not a replacement for the traditional rate, though experts consider it more accurate because of the additional factors it captures.
"What he said is factually correct, but it's a misleading characterization of the state of poverty," said Steven Durlauf, a public policy professor at the University of Chicago who studies poverty, inequality and economic growth. He explained that the SPM aims to give a fuller picture of a family's resources and costs.
Durlauf noted that the SPM's 2021 low was driven in part by a temporary expansion of the child tax credit under the American Rescue Plan, a COVID-era initiative that expired in December 2021.
Timing and population effects
Both measures are drawn from the Current Population Survey's March supplement, meaning the 2025 figures capture a snapshot from March of that year — only about three months after Trump began his second term. They do not reflect the economy today.
"Unless he managed to make something really dramatically happen in six weeks, it's really reflective of Biden," said Natasha Pilkauskas, an associate faculty director at the University of Michigan's Poverty Solutions initiative.
The official rate fell largely because incomes rose. Median household income climbed 2.6% in 2025 after inflation, to a record $87,460, topping the 2019 figure of $85,320.
There were 34.51 million people living below the poverty line in 2025, compared with an all-time low of 22.97 million in 1973. The 2025 number is larger, but the US population was 11.54 million higher, which pushed the rate down.
The White House, asked about Trump's claims, pointed to a Census Bureau press release covering three recent reports, including the poverty data. The bureau did not immediately respond to a request for comment.