Trump, Xi Set for Washington Summit as Trade Truce, Taiwan and Iran Top Agenda

US President Donald Trump will welcome Chinese leader Xi Jinping to Washington this week for their second meeting this year, as the two powers seek stability in a relationship strained by disputes over trade, Taiwan and Iran, along with global concerns about artificial intelligence.

Xi's arrival on Wednesday marks his first visit to Washington in more than a decade. In the four months since the two leaders met in Beijing in May, China's trade with the world has surged, while Trump — contending with the Iran war and low approval ratings — is seeking economic wins to present to Americans unhappy about rising prices. The summit is set for Thursday at the White House.

Trade truce in focus

Markets will be watching for signals on whether a tariff truce, announced after a Trump-Xi summit in South Korea last October and due to expire on November 10, will be extended. That deal halted a trade war in which the world's two largest economies threatened global supply chains with tit-for-tat tariffs exceeding 100%.

US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said this month that the two countries would make "some announcements on agriculture and non-tariff barriers." Traders are also looking for movement on an agreed mutual tariff reduction covering $30 billion in goods — a step China could take most readily by lowering duties on US agricultural imports.

Jets and farm goods

Trump is seeking trade announcements ahead of November's midterm congressional elections, including high-profile purchases of Boeing aircraft and agricultural products.

Greer said on Monday that China is making progress on a commitment to buy 200 Boeings, but gave no indication that further orders are imminent. Trump said in May that China could potentially raise its Boeing order — the manufacturer's first major Chinese deal in nearly a decade — to as many as 750 planes.

Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg last week played down expectations among industry analysts that another order could come around the talks. "I think there'll be an increment of orders going forward," he told an investor conference, adding that airlines would announce them at their own pace. Industry sources say a larger deal has been stalled for years as Trump has threatened to cut off China's access to critical spare engine parts.

The White House said after the May summit that China had committed to purchasing at least $17 billion per year of US agricultural products in 2026, 2027 and 2028. US Senator Pete Ricketts, the Republican chair of the Senate Foreign Relations subcommittee on East Asia, said last week that Trump should press Xi to honor those commitments and follow through on pledges to open China's market to more US beef exports.

Rare earths leverage

Beijing has been pressing Washington to further delay a rule that would bar thousands of Chinese firms from receiving advanced US technology, while Washington wants Beijing to ease shipments of rare earths and critical minerals vital for applications spanning automobiles to aerospace manufacturing, as well as defense.

Experts say Trump has taken a less combative approach than usual ahead of the meeting because of China's growing power over critical minerals. According to consultancy AlixPartners, China controls up to 70% of global rare-earth mining, 85% of refining capacity and about 90% of rare-earth metal alloy and magnet production.

The Trump administration has so far not threatened steep tariffs on Chinese imports or a ban on US technology exports, in contrast to the aggressive stances that preceded earlier summits. Last year, in retaliation against Trump's tariffs, China curbed rare earth exports, sending shockwaves through world markets.

Taiwan concerns

US allies in Asia have grown increasingly concerned that Trump may be tempted to soften Washington's support for Taiwan, the democratically governed island claimed by China, in order to lock in economic wins. Taiwan strongly objects to the sovereignty claims.

While the US, like most countries, has no formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan, it is the island's most important international backer and arms supplier. Trump said Xi pressed him on US arms sales to Taiwan during the May visit, with the US president later describing a pending package worth up to $14 billion as a "negotiating chip."

Beyond arms, people familiar with Chinese efforts said Beijing also hopes to persuade Trump to state publicly that the US opposes Taiwan's independence, rather than saying only that it does not support independence — Washington's formulation for decades. Any US shift on Taiwan would be highly controversial, raising questions about Washington's resolve to defend the island and provoking opposition in Congress.

On Monday, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with his counterparts from Japan and South Korea and reiterated the US commitment to the defense of those key Asian allies, and the three nations expressed support for Taiwan. In a letter to Trump on Friday, John Moolenaar, Republican chairman of the House Select Committee on China, wrote that Chinese objections to US arms sales and security cooperation should be "rejected out of hand."

Iran and oil ties

China maintains close ties to Tehran and is by far the world's biggest buyer of Iranian oil exports. Washington sees Xi as uniquely able to exert pressure on Tehran, but he has shown little inclination to do so.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said Trump and Xi would continue discussions on China's financial ties to Tehran during the summit. Despite US frustration with Beijing, Bessent stopped short of imposing penalties on Chinese banks when he unveiled an "economic onslaught" against Iran last month and warned countries to cut business ties with the country.

Last week, Trump brushed aside a report that Iran acquired satellite images of a base in Jordan from Chinese entities before an attack that killed three US troops there in July. Beijing is selling billions of dollars' worth of goods to Iran through a sanctions-evasion scheme, and China's foreign ministry says it is not aware of this.

AI dialogue

Analysts see artificial intelligence as a potential area for cooperation, given its implications for national security, economic competitiveness and military capabilities, and shared US and Chinese concerns about misuse. However, experts say intense competition in the field is likely to limit the scope for anything beyond symbolic agreements.

Bessent said after talks with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng at the weekend that the two sides discussed setting up a new US-China AI dialogue. This would include a notification system for common goals and common threats covering AI-related incidents that rise to a national security level.

Dario Amodei, chief executive of US AI firm Anthropic, warned this month that Chinese dominance in AI could pose security risks to the United States. Chinese state media dismissed the warning as coming from a "Cold War playbook," while Trump has brushed aside calls to slow AI development, saying that "very negative forces" were raising exaggerated concerns.