Ukrainian analyst sees limited gains from Trump-Zelenskyy talks
A Ukrainian political analyst says the Zelenskyy-Trump meeting may touch on ceasefires and winter aid but is unlikely to produce a major breakthrough.
A meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and U.S. President Donald Trump could shape the trajectory of Russia's war in Ukraine, though a Ukrainian political analyst cautioned on Tuesday that a major breakthrough is unlikely.
The two leaders are set to meet on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly in New York, with Zelenskyy seeking to enlist American help to end Russia's full-scale invasion, now in its more than four-and-a-half-year mark.
Oleh Saakian, a Ukrainian political scientist, said the talks would probably cover the possibility of ceasefires in the energy and maritime domains, along with a winter support package for Ukraine. While funding has been approved for Ukrainian air defense, he noted, the package does not include Patriot systems or other key capabilities.
"With Trump, it is virtually impossible to predict what that impact will be. To a large extent, this meeting is being driven by Trump's electoral needs," Saakian said, adding that the war's salience for the American public should not be overstated even as it could influence races in certain states and districts.
"I do not expect any breakthroughs," he said. "But I do expect a discussion about the possibility of a ceasefire in the form of an energy truce, as well as a maritime truce."
Turning to Russia's State Duma elections, Saakian described them as a further step in the country's shift from authoritarianism toward totalitarianism. He pointed to the number of military representatives elected to the chamber for the first time and to campaign rhetoric dominated by militarism, in which a vote for the authorities was framed as a vote for victory.
He said the Kremlin's main objective was to secure turnout while results were fabricated, and to simulate voting in occupied territories so that the world accepts the outcome without protest. The process, he argued, amounted to an operation to legitimize the regime and demonstrate the absolute nature of President Vladimir Putin's power.
Saakian added that the elections created an ideological framework by taking place during a highly unsuccessful war and after Russia's failed summer campaign, forcing the authorities to turn them into a kind of referendum in support of the war. Beyond that, he said, they would not determine anything substantive, describing them as a routine process for Putin's regime in which the priority was to avoid overstretching and to maintain loyalty and the chain of command.