Black Sea blockade pushes Ukrainian farmers to the brink

Ukrainian farmer Serhiy Rybalko lost two-thirds of his land to the Russian occupation in 2022. Now, a different crisis is unfolding: a potentially good harvest is trapped on his farm with nowhere to go.

Russia's campaign of strikes on Black Sea port infrastructure has nearly halted Ukraine's agricultural exports, which normally flow through the waterway. With the wheat harvest at its peak and corn harvest due next month, storage is filling up fast.

"There is nowhere to send this grain," said Rybalko, standing at his silo. "This is a complete disaster for farmers." He previously sold to major exporter Nibulon and local processors, but now no one is buying. "Everything has just stopped. Finances have ground to a halt. Revenue streams have dried up. There are no exports."

Agriculture accounts for nearly 60% of Ukraine's export revenues, and the blockade is putting immense pressure on the wartime economy. Ukraine's grain exports plunged 75% year-on-year in the first two weeks of August, according to data released on Wednesday.

Ukraine expects a grain harvest of about 60 million tons this year, similar to last year. But without exports, farmers cannot raise the funds needed for the next sowing cycle. Domestic grain prices have slumped as local supplies accumulate, even as global benchmark prices have spiked.

Denys Marchuk, deputy head of the farmers' union UAC, warned that farmers will only profit from wheat exports and will be unable to cover production costs for other grains. He also cautioned of potential famine in import-dependent countries across Africa and the Middle East if supplies do not arrive on time.

Rybalko, who borrowed heavily to rebuild after the war began, needs about 20 million hryvnias ($447,000) a month during the harvest to service loans, pay wages, and buy fuel. Without that cash, the autumn fieldwork campaign is under threat.

The current disruption echoes the early days of the war, when a UN-brokered deal allowed grain shipments to resume. After Russia exited that agreement in 2023, Ukraine launched its own corridor along the western Black Sea coast. That route has now nearly shut down again, with over 70 attacks on port infrastructure and 62 strikes on vessels in July and early August, according to the Ukrainian port administration.

Alternative export routes are urgently needed, but options have narrowed. Relations with Poland have deteriorated over competition from cheaper Ukrainian grain, the EU has tightened trade rules, water levels in the Danube are low, and Russian strikes have hit railway infrastructure.

Ukraine's central bank estimates the blockade will cost about $2.5 billion in hard currency revenues for the rest of the year. The agricultural sector's wartime losses have already exceeded $90 billion since 2022, and cultivated land has shrunk by nearly a quarter.

Farmers on the ground are feeling the squeeze. "The harvest compared to last year's - and the wheat too - is almost twice as good," said Felix Fyodorov, a farm director in the Kharkiv region. "But prices are half of what they were last year."

Rybalko has been forced to sell early wheat at a loss just to cover diesel costs. The most pressing concern, he says, is securing next year's harvest. "If Ukraine does not sow its crops today... then in a year's time we will see a real food crisis."