Ukraine warns 2027 sowing area could shrink by a quarter as grain exports collapse

Ukraine's agriculture ministry has warned that the country's 2027 planting campaign is under serious threat, with farmers potentially lacking the financial resources to sow crops after Russia's blockade of deep-water ports crippled grain exports.

The ministry said the area sown for the next harvest could shrink by 5 to 7 million hectares. For context, Ukraine sowed approximately 20 million hectares of grain and oilseeds for the 2026 harvest, primarily wheat, corn, and sunflower.

Russian missile and drone attacks have effectively shut down agricultural exports through the deep-water ports of Greater Odesa, which previously handled up to 90% of all shipments. Rail and river routes have been unable to compensate for the lost capacity.

State railway operator Ukrzaliznytsia reported that grain export shipments totaled just 574,000 metric tons in the first part of August, a 60% drop from the previous month. This includes 170,000 tons sent to Ukraine's Danube ports and 343,200 tons to western border crossings.

While Ukrzaliznytsia says it can move about 1 million tons of grain monthly to land borders and 500,000 tons to Danube ports, these figures pale in comparison to the 6 million tons per month that Greater Odesa's deep-water ports can handle.

Agriculture ministry data shows Ukraine exported only 539,000 tons of grain from August 1 to 21, versus 1.73 million tons during the same period last year.

Officials say Danube exports could increase, as they did earlier in the war, but a shortage of vessels and frequent air-raid alerts are hampering operations. Valeriy Tkachev, deputy head of Ukrzaliznytsia's commercial department, noted that while the capacity exists, the key issue is the regular availability of vessels for loading.

Company data revealed that only nine rail wagons had been unloaded at Danube ports since midnight due to prolonged air-raid alerts. At the Reni port, no grain wagons were unloaded in the past 24 hours because no vessels were available.

Traders report that up to 70 vessels are waiting near the Danube's Sulina Canal for access to Ukrainian ports, with a shortage of pilots and priority given to other cargoes causing long delays.