Ukraine grain exports rebound as Danube route costs climb

Ukraine's weekly exports of wheat, corn and barley rose sharply in late August, even as the country's Black Sea ports remain blocked and alternative shipping routes grow more expensive.

Data from consultancy APK-Inform shows that shipments for the week of August 27 to September 2 reached 433,700 metric tons, an 80% increase from the previous week. Corn exports led the jump, rising 212% to 184,100 tons, while wheat shipments increased 40% to 243,000 tons.

The recovery comes after a steep decline in late July, when Russian missile and drone attacks halted operations at Ukrainian ports in the Odesa region. Before the blockade, Ukraine was exporting roughly 760,000 tons of grain per week.

With seaports closed, Ukraine has shifted shipments to Danube river ports and western border crossings. However, officials and analysts caution that these routes cannot fully replace the lost capacity of the seaports.

The Ukrainian traders union UGA reported that combined grain and oilseed exports fell to 1.2 million tons in August, down from 2.5 million tons in July. In previous seasons, Ukraine routinely exported at least 4 million tons per month via its seaports.

While shipments to Danube ports rose 12% during the week, growth is constrained by a shortage of vessels and high freight costs. Logistics costs from Danube ports are estimated to be $40-$50 per ton higher than from Black Sea ports.

Grain must be moved by rail to river ports, loaded onto small vessels or barges, and transferred to larger ships at Romania's Constanta port.

ASAP Agri consultancy reported that freight rates from Ukrainian Danube ports continue to climb sharply. Limited availability of coaster vessels and longer waiting times at the Sulina Canal are pushing charterers to accept higher rates.

Short-haul coaster rates to Marmara or East Coast Greece ports rose by about $10 per ton over the week, while rates to Italy and Spain increased by $20-$25 per ton. Barge rates rose by €5 per ton, with fleet availability extremely limited.