Ukraine Poised to Sign Landmark Drone Defence Deal with US

Ukraine is prepared to sign a landmark drone defence agreement with the United States, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy ready to formalise the arrangement on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York this week. The deal could alternatively be concluded at a later date, once Washington is ready to sign.

Battlefield expertise in demand

Kyiv's drone technology has drawn international attention, particularly in light of recent hostilities involving Iran. During the early stages of that conflict, Iran deployed Shahed-type one-way attack drones against American military installations across West Asia. Russia has used the same family of drones extensively against Ukrainian cities and infrastructure.

In March this year, Ukraine sent specialised military and drone-expert teams to West Asia after a formal request from the United States. In a video address, Zelenskyy said Ukraine had "the greatest experience in the world in countering attack drones", referring to expertise built through years of Russian drone attacks. Ukraine has also said the US and 10 other countries across the Middle East and Europe have sought its assistance in addressing the growing drone threat.

The economics of drone warfare

One of the central lessons from the Ukraine war is the widening mismatch between the cost of an attacking drone and the weapon used to destroy it. Iranian-style attack drones can cost tens of thousands of dollars, while interceptor missiles fielded by sophisticated Western air-defence systems can cost hundreds of thousands or even millions of dollars. That creates a difficult economic equation when large numbers of relatively inexpensive drones are launched simultaneously.

US ships and military bases have air-defence systems designed largely to counter expensive missiles with expensive interceptors. Ukraine, by contrast, has pioneered a range of smaller, cheaper interceptor drones, with some costing as little as $1,000.

A drone warfare laboratory

Russia's invasion has forced Ukraine to rapidly adapt its military technology and tactics. Years of repeated Russian drone attacks have given Ukrainian forces extensive operational experience in identifying, tracking and intercepting unmanned systems. That experience has also created a feedback loop between Ukraine's military and its domestic defence industry, with systems tested in combat, rapidly modified and returned to the battlefield.

This battlefield-driven innovation is now attracting interest from countries facing similar threats.

Why Washington wants Kyiv's know-how

For the US, Ukraine's experience offers a way to address a problem that has become increasingly important for American forces: how to defend bases, ships and troops in West Asia against large numbers of relatively cheap drones without exhausting expensive air-defence interceptors. Low-cost drones are also increasingly being used by state and non-state actors, including the Houthis and Hamas, against US allies, making counter-drone technology an important component of modern air defence.

Ukraine has also sought to expand its defence partnerships beyond the US. Kyiv has signed comprehensive 10-year defence and security agreements with Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar. The agreements come as West Asian countries face growing drone threats following the US-Israel-Iran conflict and a series of attacks and retaliatory strikes involving unmanned systems.

The dynamic between Washington and Kyiv has shifted: Ukraine needs American air-defence capabilities, while the US has a growing interest in Ukraine's experience with inexpensive drone interceptors.