Ukraine Slowly Losing War, Ousted Minister Warns

Ukraine is gradually losing its war against Russia, according to Mykhailo Fedorov, the former defence minister whose dismissal last month triggered weeks of public protests. In an interview, Fedorov said Kyiv has only a few months to make critical decisions that could reverse the current trajectory.

Fedorov, a 35-year-old reformer, argued that Ukraine lacks a coherent strategy for victory in the four-year-old conflict. He pointed to entrenched corruption, patronage networks, and a failure to innovate as key factors hobbling the war effort. He described the Ukrainian state as operating at only "5% effectiveness."

His comments mark a sharp break from the official optimism of the government. The presidential office responded by noting that Fedorov had been positive about the war's conduct while in office, suggesting his change in tone is tied to his personal status.

Fedorov highlighted specific military challenges, including Russia's heavy use of ballistic missiles that Ukraine struggles to intercept due to low supplies. While Russia is gaining less ground than last year, it continues to advance slowly in the Donbas region. Ukrainian frontline positions are reportedly manned by unmotivated conscripts.

Despite these difficulties, a late-July poll found that 82% of Ukrainians still believe their country will win, though most expect fighting to continue into 2027 or later.

Fedorov advocates for a technological shift: autonomous AI-guided drones, cheap interceptor missiles, and a domestic ballistic missile program. He believes these tools could stop Russian advances if implemented with a clear, joined-up strategy.

He also defended his earlier decision to front-load defence spending, which President Volodymyr Zelenskiy says has created a $27 billion budget hole. Fedorov disputes this figure, saying his plan relied on savings from new procurement tenders and international support.

Fedorov has also stirred controversy by becoming the first major political figure to call for wartime elections, a move Zelenskiy has condemned as potentially destructive. Ukraine has been under martial law since the February 2022 invasion, which bans elections. Fedorov denies any outside influence behind his call and has not ruled out a presidential run himself.