Blocked Ports Could Halve Ukraine's Wheat Exports, Warns ASAP Agri

Ukraine's wheat exports could fall sharply to between 5 million and 10 million metric tons in the 2026/27 July-to-June season if its Black Sea ports remain paralyzed by Russian attacks, according to agricultural consultancy ASAP Agri.

The warning comes after Ukrainian seaports in the Odesa hub effectively halted operations at the end of July, following a series of Russian drone and missile strikes on terminals and vessels. The disruption marks a significant blow to a country that exported around 14 million tons of wheat in 2025/26 and 15.7 million tons in 2024/25.

Under normal conditions, Ukraine can ship up to 6 million tons of various grains monthly from its three Odesa ports. The current blockade threatens to cut that capacity drastically, potentially reshaping global grain supply dynamics.

ASAP Agri also noted that Russian wheat exports could face similar constraints this season if its deep-sea export routes become severely restricted. Ukraine has recently intensified attacks on Russian port facilities, raising concerns that the escalating tit-for-tat strikes between two of the world's leading grain exporters could trigger global shortages.