UN Warns 'Supersized' El Niño Could Be Strongest Ever Recorded
UN weather agency warns El Niño may become strongest on record, persisting into 2027 and fueling extreme weather.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has issued a stark warning that the current El Niño event could intensify into the strongest ever recorded, with forecasts indicating a near 100% likelihood it will persist through February 2027. The UN agency said this is the first time it has expressed such a high degree of certainty about the phenomenon's trajectory.
Speaking at a press conference in Geneva, WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said the event could surpass anything seen since monitoring began. "If this trajectory continues, it may be stronger than anything since our monitoring began. So literally off the charts," she stated.
El Niño, a periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific driven by weakened trade winds, typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts up to 12 months. It is known to trigger intense rains and droughts, particularly across Latin America, and can significantly disrupt global rainfall and temperature patterns, fueling extreme weather like typhoons and droughts.
The WMO noted that while El Niño is a natural phenomenon, it is being intensified by warmer ocean temperatures linked to climate change. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres described the event as being "supersized before our eyes," adding that "the planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up."
Sea surface temperatures in the Pacific during this event are already more than 2 degrees Celsius above normal, placing it among only four 'very strong' El Niños recorded since 1950. The phenomenon has already caused severe crop failures and a food crisis in Central America's Dry Corridor.
The event is expected to peak towards the end of this year, but its effects will linger into 2027. WMO officials warned that this could lead to a temporary "pulse" in global temperatures, making 2027 potentially the warmest year on record. In response, the WMO is ramping up preparedness and early warning efforts to help nations take preemptive action, such as adopting drought-resistant crops, and to support climate-sensitive sectors including agriculture, health, and water resources.