US and China Seek Progress on Trade Deals as Trump and Xi Meet in Washington

US President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping are meeting in Washington this week, with both sides looking to advance a series of trade commitments made after their previous summit in Beijing in May. The talks are expected to cover a range of issues, from agricultural and aircraft exports to artificial intelligence, but analysts caution that major breakthroughs are unlikely.

At the centre of the discussions is a proposed Board of Trade and reciprocal tariff reductions on $30 billion worth of goods in each direction, both agreed in principle in May. A Chinese Commerce Ministry spokesperson said earlier this month that the two sides hope to implement the tariff cuts "at an early date." However, experts at the World Economic Forum noted that about 10 product categories remain under discussion, with disagreements over the scope of the initiative. The cuts would be limited to non-sensitive items, potentially including toys, holiday decorations and other low-end factory products from China, while American farmers could see lower Chinese tariffs on agricultural exports.

Agricultural trade remains a key focus. The White House said in May that China had agreed to buy at least $17 billion annually in American agricultural products, on top of an earlier pledge to purchase 25 million metric tons of soybeans a year. According to Luke Lindberg, the US undersecretary of agriculture for trade, that would bring China's total yearly farm purchases from the US to about $30 billion. Yet it is unclear whether that level will be reached; the US Department of Agriculture forecast last month that China would import $21.5 billion of American farm goods in the 12-month period starting October 1.

Both sides also agreed in May to work on reducing barriers to dairy, seafood and potted bonsai exports from China, and beef and poultry from the US. China has renewed registrations for American beef plants, but negotiators are still working through technical issues to clear US shipments at Chinese ports, according to Joe Schuele of the US Meat Export Federation. "Hopefully it will get worked out soon," he said.

In aviation, China promised in May to buy 200 Boeing planes, but those sales have yet to materialise. Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg said last week that Chinese airlines would announce the orders on their own schedule. "We're progressing nicely," he told analysts. "And I'm confident that we will be receiving orders." Craig Allen, a nonresident fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute, noted that the Chinese have been concerned about access to aircraft parts.

Cooperation on artificial intelligence has also been slow. An agreement to set up a dialogue on AI saw little progress until a recent flurry of activity spurred by industry fears about misuse. "AI is now on people's minds," said Alvin Graylin, a senior fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute. But while the world's two leading AI nations share concerns over risks, they also see each other as competitors, hindering cooperation. "They see little reason to collaborate in areas where they believe a competitive advantage is key, regardless of what they say about wanting to get along," said Ja Ian Chong, a political scientist at the National University of Singapore.

A smaller step could be setting up a channel for crisis communications. "Given how low the trust is between these two countries, it's really important that people know who their counterparts are and can call them when there's a crisis," said Sara Schuman, a former senior US negotiator for China trade and an adjunct fellow with the Washington-based Center for a New American Security.

An agreement to form a Board of Investment, also announced in May, has proven more difficult than the trade board. While Trump welcomes new factories in the United States, Chinese investment is drawing scrutiny from the US Congress over security and strategic concerns. China is likewise cautious about exporting its technology to the US and unsure whether it is safe to invest there, said Kurt Tong, a former US diplomat now with The Asia Group consultancy. "It kind of sets up a parameter on how far the relationship might be able to improve, given the levels of suspicion between the US and China," he said.

Schuman added that for Trump, demonstrating progress just before the November midterm elections is important. "I think for the president, he wants to be able to demonstrate, just before the midterms, that this approach is working and that it benefits voters," she said. Overall, the main deliverable of the visit may simply be that it is taking place, with its symbolism and optics carrying weight.