US forecaster flags over 90% risk of very strong El Nino in 2026-27
The US Climate Prediction Center sees a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Nino during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter of 2026-27.
El Nino conditions are intensifying, and the United States Climate Prediction Center now estimates a greater than 90 per cent probability that a very strong event will develop during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter of 2026-27.
The forecaster, in an update issued on Thursday, also placed a 75 per cent chance on the October-December 2026 season producing a historic episode — one that would surpass the strength of every El Nino recorded since 1950.
El Nino is a periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific that reshapes weather patterns worldwide, often bringing drought to parts of Asia and Australia while driving heavier rainfall elsewhere. A very strong event can amplify those effects, with consequences for agriculture, water resources and disaster preparedness.
The centre's outlook points to a strengthening episode rather than a marginal one, though the full magnitude will depend on how ocean and atmospheric conditions evolve over the coming months.