US-Iran War Nears Seventh Month as Red Sea, Hormuz Oil Routes Grow Unsafe
As the US-Iran war nears its seventh month, Houthi control of a Red Sea port and attacks near Hormuz are shutting down key oil routes, deepening energy crisis fears.
The US-Iran war is approaching its seventh month with no diplomatic off-ramp in sight, and the conflict is steadily pulling in more actors while closing off the waterways that carry the bulk of the Middle East's oil.
The fighting began in late February, when the United States and Israel launched a joint operation against Tehran that killed most of Iran's leadership, including former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Iran has since retaliated by striking US bases across the region, and Saudi Arabia and the Iran-backed Houthis have been drawn into the hostilities.
Another corridor lost
On Friday, the Houthis widened their hold on the Red Sea, threatening a route that had become critical for moving Persian Gulf crude. Their capture of the Yemeni port city of Mokha pushed out forces allied with the Yemeni government, consolidating a stronghold over the Bab al-Mandab Strait. Days earlier, Houthi attacks injured 73 civilians and struck energy facilities in southern Saudi Arabia.
The Bab al-Mandab had emerged as a backup route after Tehran shut the Strait of Hormuz following the initial US and Israeli strikes. With that option now compromised, the region has few alternatives left. Traffic through Hormuz remains far below pre-war levels, and oil exports from Saudi Arabia, the Middle East's largest producer, fell last month to their lowest point in more than 13 years.
A dangerous passage
The US Navy has managed to move oil out of Hormuz along sea lanes hugging Oman's coast, on the side opposite Iran, but the operation is extensive and hazardous. For shipping firms, the strait — long a sticking point in US-Iran negotiations — has become a high-risk crossing. At least 23 ships were attacked near Oman in July and August, and at least 22 sailors have been killed in the region since the war began on 28 February.
"These waters aren't safe," said Michelle Wiese Bockmann, an analyst at the maritime intelligence firm Windward.
Few ways out
Data from the maritime data company Kpler shows only two Saudi cargoes passed through Bab al-Mandab from the Red Sea last week. Riyadh can still move oil north through a pipeline near the Suez Canal for shipment via the Mediterranean, but that route is costlier and lengthens the journey to Asia, where most of its buyers are located.
Analysts warn the war appears to be spinning beyond control, raising the prospect of a wider military confrontation. With key oil routes under threat and alternatives expensive and difficult, the region's energy crisis could deepen further unless a diplomatic solution restores stability to the waterways.