US July Jobs Report Expected to Show Modest Hiring Amid Mixed Labor Signals
US likely added 98,000 jobs in July, but long-term unemployment and hiring struggles persist for younger workers.
The US labor market is projected to have added nearly 98,000 jobs in July, according to a survey of forecasters by data firm FactSet. This would mark an improvement over June's disappointing 57,000 new jobs and continue a rebound from 2025, when monthly hiring averaged fewer than 10,000 jobs outside a recession.
So far in 2026, employers have added an average of 92,000 jobs per month. While this level would have been considered weak in the past, the US now needs fewer jobs to keep unemployment stable. A Federal Reserve study suggests the monthly "break-even" hiring rate has dropped from 155,000 in 2023-2024 to perhaps near zero, largely due to immigration crackdowns and baby boomer retirements reducing the pool of available workers.
Despite overall stability, the job market is sending mixed signals. Layoffs remain historically low, and one week in July saw unemployment benefit claims drop to their lowest level in over 50 years. The jobless rate fell to 4.2% in June, the lowest in a year, and is expected to have held steady in July.
However, those without jobs are struggling. In May, 27.5% of unemployed Americans had been out of work for six months or more, the highest share in four and a half years. Economists describe the current conditions as "no hire, no fire."
Researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco found that landing a job has become surprisingly difficult, even for prime-age workers with college degrees. They cite possible factors including immigration enforcement, tech sector hiring slowdowns, and uncertainty over government policy.
Wage dynamics also reflect the uneven market. Payroll processor ADP reported that job switchers received a 7% raise in July, while those staying in their roles saw a 4.4% increase. Meanwhile, productivity gains from technology are reducing the need for new hires in some sectors.
The outlook remains clouded by Persian Gulf tensions affecting energy prices and the potential impact of artificial intelligence on employment. A June anomaly saw 720,000 people leave the labor force, mostly aged 25-34, which could affect upcoming unemployment figures if reversed.