US Reopens Border to Mexican Cattle, But Economists See No Quick Fix for Beef Prices

The United States is set to reopen a key Arizona border crossing to cattle from Mexico on Monday, a move aimed at addressing record-high beef prices. However, agricultural economists caution that the step will not provide immediate relief for consumers at the grocery store.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has determined that the risk of New World screwworm spread has diminished enough to permit cattle movement through Douglas, Arizona, roughly 230 miles southeast of Phoenix. The agency plans to gradually reopen additional crossings in New Mexico and Texas in the future.

The decision follows a broader push by the administration to tackle beef costs. Last week, President Donald Trump announced a plan to allow up to 300,000 metric tons of tariff-free imported ground beef into the country for sale at below-market prices over the next 90 days.

The border was closed to Mexican livestock in May 2025 to contain the screwworm, a parasite whose flesh-eating larvae can be fatal to animals. The closure exacerbated an existing shortage of cattle for slaughter, as the U.S. herd has been shrinking for five years and is now at its smallest in 75 years, standing at 86.2 million head as of January.

Derrell Peel, an agribusiness professor at Oklahoma State University, noted that the phased reopening means it will take months for imports to return to normal levels. Mexico has traditionally supplied about 1.1 million head, or roughly 3% of the U.S. cattle supply. "I don't expect to see any measurable impact on cattle prices or beef prices soon," Peel said.

Data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics shows ground beef prices have surged nearly 57% since July 2021, reaching an average of $6.89 per pound in July 2026. Steak prices have climbed 35% over the same period to a record $13.06 per pound.

Glynn Tonsor, a Kansas State University agricultural economist, pointed out that the industry's increased efficiency has partially offset the supply reduction, as producers are getting more meat from each animal.

The screwworm, which was largely eradicated in the U.S. decades ago, reappeared in southern Mexico in late 2024 and spread northward. Since the first Texas case in June, over 40 infestations have been confirmed in southern Texas and southeastern New Mexico.

USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins has said the Arizona crossing was chosen first because the northern Mexican states of Sonora and Chihuahua have stronger animal health programs. Each animal will be inspected for the parasite before crossing.

Industry leaders have welcomed the move. U.S. House Agriculture Committee Chair John Boozman called it a "careful, science-based" approach that is "critical to strengthening our cattle supply."

Experts say rebuilding the U.S. herd will take years, as cows typically produce only one calf annually. David Anderson of Texas A&M University attributed the small herd to years of drought and two decades of low cattle prices. The shortage has also forced major processors like Tyson Foods and JBS USA to close several plants.

Peel concluded that high prices will persist for the foreseeable future, adding that for elected officials, "There's nothing you can do."