US electricity demand to hit fresh records in 2026, 2027 on AI boom
US power use is projected to set new highs in 2026 and 2027, driven by AI data centres and electrification, with renewables' share rising to 27%.
The United States is on track to consume more electricity than ever before over the next two years, propelled by the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence and a broader shift toward electrification. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) now expects total power demand to climb from a record 4,195 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) in 2025 to 4,270 billion kWh in 2026 and further to 4,349 billion kWh in 2027.
The surge is largely attributed to the energy-intensive needs of data centres supporting AI and cryptocurrency operations, alongside growing electricity use in homes and businesses as they move away from fossil fuels for heating and transport.
Interestingly, the forecast shows the West South Central region — which includes Texas — will account for the largest share of growth in electricity sales, even though the state has paused new data centre connections to its grid.
A notable shift is expected in the consumer mix. The EIA projects commercial electricity sales will surpass residential demand for the first time in 2026. Commercial sales are seen reaching 1,542 billion kWh, edging past the residential forecast of 1,527 billion kWh. Industrial demand is pegged at 1,059 billion kWh for the same year.
On the generation side, the energy mix is evolving. Coal's share of power output is expected to decline steadily from 17% in 2025 to 16% in 2026 and just 14% in 2027. Natural gas is forecast to hold steady at 40% through the period. Renewables are set to gain ground, rising from about 24% of generation in 2025 to 25% in 2026 and 27% in 2027. Nuclear power's contribution is projected to remain unchanged at 18%.
The outlook also covers natural gas consumption. Residential gas use is expected to dip slightly to 12.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2026, while commercial use eases to 9.5 bcfd. Industrial gas demand is seen rising to 23.9 bcfd, and gas burned for power generation is projected to hit 36.8 bcfd.