Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland leaders sign pact challenging UK unity

The leaders of Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland signed a memorandum of understanding on Monday that presses Prime Minister Andy Burnham's government to prepare for constitutional change and signals that their future lies with the European Union.

In the document, the three first ministers said the agreement offered "no clearer sign that Westminster's time is coming to an end," referring to the UK Parliament. The leaders appeared in their political capacity rather than their official one, a possible reflection of the power-sharing arrangement in Northern Ireland, where First Minister Michelle O'Neill governs alongside the Democratic Unionist Party.

It is the first occasion on which the leaders of all three devolved nations belong either to pro-independence parties or, in Northern Ireland's case, to a pro-unification party. Scotland's John Swinney and O'Neill both called for independence referendums in their countries, while Wales's Rhun ap Iorwerth did not set out a timetable for one.

The announcement came roughly 48 hours after US President Donald Trump, during a trip to visit his golf course hosting the Irish Open, said he would "love to see" a reunified Ireland.

Burnham's spokesperson, Tom Wells, dismissed the significance of the pact, saying the prime minister holds a strong belief in the union and is more focused on lowering the cost of living than on constitutional debates. "The United Kingdom is at its best when people come together around our shared values and problem-solving, rather than division," Wells said.

Northern Ireland's Deputy First Minister, Emma Little-Pengelly of the DUP, accused O'Neill of Sinn Fein of "weaponizing" the first minister's role by signing the agreement. O'Neill responded: "I am first minister in the north of Ireland. This is about historic change happening all around us."

Nicola McEwen, director of the University of Glasgow Center for Public Policy, described the summit as symbolically important but without legal significance. "I don't see the threat to the union being bigger today than it was yesterday," she said.

The UK introduced devolution in the late 1990s, granting Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland their own parliaments and a measure of policy independence while London retained control over national matters and those concerning England. Scotland's 2014 independence referendum was rejected by 55% to 45%, but McEwen said support for separation has grown since Brexit, which formally took effect in January 2020 following the 2016 referendum. Swinney said he believed voters would now back independence if the UK government approved a referendum.

Burnham told Parliament last week he would permit such a vote if there were a "clear consensus" in Scotland, but later wrote to Swinney saying a vote was "off limits." The 1998 Good Friday agreement requires a unification vote in Northern Ireland if polls indicate it would likely pass, a threshold London says has not been met; Ireland would also need to approve any change in a referendum.

Burnham, who took office less than two months ago, has made devolution a central theme, though his focus has been on regional governments in England, reflecting his years as mayor of Greater Manchester. Swinney sought to turn that emphasis to his advantage, saying Burnham's frequent talk of devolution "leads you to the logic of recognizing the right of the people of Scotland, in my case, to decide their own future."

Beyond any threat of departure from the union, McEwen said the pact's greatest impact could be that the three agreed to cooperate routinely, potentially giving them more influence over the UK government. "It does keep on the agenda that question about, well, if the United Kingdom is a union based on consent, what is the pathway where it looks like that consent may no longer be there?" she said. "Any U.K. government has been very reluctant to engage in that discussion."