Dry Weather and Fertiliser Costs Hit Western Australia's Grain Crops

Western Australia's grain production outlook has worsened, with the Grain Industry Association of Western Australia (GIWA) trimming its forecasts for wheat and barley. The revision follows a month of dry conditions across key cropping zones and a reduction in fertiliser use after prices surged earlier in the year.

GIWA now expects the state to produce 9 million tonnes of wheat in 2026, down 500,000 tonnes from its previous estimate. Barley production is forecast at 6.1 million tonnes, a cut of nearly one million tonnes. Canola saw a smaller adjustment, with the forecast reduced by 50,000 tonnes to 4.3 million tonnes.

These figures are well below last year's output, when Western Australia produced 13.3 million tonnes of wheat, 7.6 million tonnes of barley, and 4.4 million tonnes of canola.

The association said yield potential has fallen due to ongoing dry conditions in the southern Kwinana South port zone, the Great Southern, and Lakes Districts. Other areas are in better shape, but cold weather has raised the risk of frost, prompting warnings of "a very nervous few weeks" if conditions do not improve.

Fertiliser cutbacks have also capped wheat yields, as many farmers reduced applications after prices spiked. The reductions were mainly on wheat, as canola and barley offered better profit margins.

While Western Australia faces challenges, the national wheat outlook has improved thanks to rain in southern and eastern regions. Analysts expect Australia to produce around 30 million tonnes of wheat this year.